US (HAWAII). Visitor arrivals in Hawaii declined a little this winter amid fears of war and terrorism. The figures dipped further in March, but now the authorities are already predicting a recovery in April or May with new flight connections coming onstream in June.
Such is the sensitivity of local industry to tourist arrivals that the Hawaii Airports Authority carries out an analysis of international arrivals (excluding Canada) every morning. Even during the worst periods of 2001, the daily count never went under 4,000 international arrivals but last month it occurred several times. In January, the Japanese arrival count fell below 4,000 on 10 days and in February it happened twice.
“The largest decline for Hawaii is expected in April,” the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau (HVCB) said in its latest weekly report. This is the first full month after the start of the war, which is consistent with the post-Gulf War pattern, said HVCB. That assessment is also consistent with the expectation of airlines, most of which have said that they hope to lift their deepest route suspensions by June.
Japanese visitors, “who tend to be more conservative and security conscious,” have been less inclined to travel than any other group of people who normally visit Hawaii in large numbers. “Cancellations are limited to company-paid group business and school excursions,” HVCB said. That alone, however, is enough to produce bookings that are -30% below last year for April and May.
The Japan Travel Bureau, which dominates the tour business in Japan, predicts the worst Golden Week since 1969 for outbound travel from Japan, roughly -36% below last year. Golden Week, this year from 24 April to 4 May, is a week of consecutive holidays when many Japanese take family trips.
So far this month, Japanese arrivals have never hit the 4,000 per day level and have fallen below 3,000 on seven days. Last Tuesday 8 April, the Hawaii Airport Authority count was 1,937, a level not seen since the weeks following 11 September 2001. By comparison, last year in the first two weeks of April, Japanese arrivals topped 4,000 on four days and never fell below 3,000 a day.
