INTERNATIONAL. Boeing released its 2003 Current Market Outlook at the Paris Air Show yesterday, forecasting a doubling of aircraft numbers by 2022. The aircraft builder also projected a US$5.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes and aviation services over the next 20 years.
Boeing estimates the world fleet will more than double to 34,000 jets by 2022, comprising approximately 18,400 airplanes for market growth; 5,900 airplanes for replacement; and 9,700 airplanes currently flying. The mix of current and new airplanes is expected to accommodate a forecast of +5.1% per year growth in world air travel up to 2022. This growth rate is two percentage points above overall economic growth measured in GDP.
Regional growth, measured in RPKs (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) is said to vary between +4.0% and +7.3%, with Latin America expected to be the fastest-growing region. Northeast Asia, South America, and Europe are forecast to have the largest growth of air traffic at a rate in excess of GDP growth.
Boeing said Europe will experience the continuing positive effects of liberalisation. South America will recover from present economic slowdowns and will increase air traffic through liberalisation, international trade and tourist development. Japan and Korea currently generate less air travel than their wealth would indicate and in the long term should show much more robust air travel rates.
Southwest Asia and Africa traffic growth has historically lagged the world. But both regions are forecast to grow above the world average over the next 20 years, as their economies and airline industries further develop.
“The progression from a regulated to liberalised market has increased competition and is forcing airlines to operate at much higher levels of efficiency to remain profitable,’ said Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president, marketing.
“Passenger preference for more frequent, non-stop flights with shorter trip times [rather than larger aircraft] will continue to drive market evolution and airline strategies”, said Baseler.
