SPAIN. International tourism is resilient enough to recuperate relatively quickly if the war in Iraq is not drawn out, according to World Tourism Organization (WTO) secretary general Francesco Frangialli. “If the conflict remains short and contained, it is not out of the question for recovery to come during the second half of the year,” he said in a letter sent to WTO member countries.
The uncertainty caused by the build up to the war already had a negative impact by fuelling fear, discouraging bookings and delaying investment plans. “We would have preferred something other than the worst possible solution: war. But there are powerful reasons to remain reasonably hopeful for the recovery of tourism.”
As an industry which ensures stability and promotes recovery, tourism has never suffered a deep and lasting recession, he said. “Tourism has always bounced back and has always done so quickly. The economic and financial crises in Asia Pacific and Russia in 1997 to 1998 were clear examples.”
Similar signs of consumer confidence in adversity were demonstrated following the conflicts in the Balkans and the 1991 Gulf War. In 1991 global tourism still achieved +1.2% growth, followed by a spectacular +8.3% jump in 1992.
Madrid-based WTO said its research shows that the adjustment period to such crises is accelerating changes in consumer habits and transforming the fabric of the industry, encouraging the creation of new types of operators such as low cost airlines.
