JAPAN. As Golden Week approaches (starting from 29 April), demand for overseas travel is healthy, according to the latest diffusion index released by the Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA).
The survey, reported by our colleagues at Travel Journal International (TJI) Online, revealed that the overall diffusion index will be up to 16, the highest in more than a year.
It said that China will lead all destinations while senior travelers will head all market sectors between April and June.
TJI Online said that the impact of the 26 December earthquake and tsunami in Asia was now less of a concern in terms of its impact on travel levels than it was a few months ago. “Travel demand over the next three months to June will improve,” it said.
The latest Diffusion Index (DI) covers the period between April and June. The survey, conducted between 21 February and 7 March (which therefore excludes the latest earthquake in Indonesia) shows that the diffusion index will climb to 16 from a -2 level for the January-March period.
The results are based on a survey of JATA-member companies for which 294 of 596 answered, a 49.3% response rate.
Responses range from “˜very good’, “˜good’, “˜average’, “˜fairly poor’ to “˜poor’ to questions on business conditions for the given period broken down by destination and market sector. ‘Very good’ has an index of 100 while at the other end of the spectrum “˜poor’ is -100. “˜Average’ is 0.
The DI is the highest since the 15 posted during the July-September 2004 period, and up from the 9 recorded a year earlier.
By market sector, demand appears to be the strongest among senior travellers, defined as 60 and over, with a DI of 8, up from the -4 between January and March. The senior market tends to serve as a gauge for the outbound market TJI said. This group is followed by the middle-aged group (45-59), which had a diffusion index of 4. The honeymoon (-23), family (-13) and female office workers (-19) all showed improvements but remain in the negative DI column.
One reason for the improvements is the favorable line-up of holidays within the Golden Week period during the end of April and early part of May, said JATA.
By destination, China continues to show strong demand, particularly among women and senior travelers, with a DI of 31, the highest in more than a year. With the exception of Oceania, all major regions will post improvements during the next three months. JATA said that long-haul destinations such as Europe and North America plus Asia will generate increases of 11 points or more.
The association added that Hawaii (5) and Asia (3) will move into the positive DI after a period of weaker demand.
Note: The Moodie Report works closely with Travel Journal International Online, which is the pre-eminent provider of information on the Japanese travel industry. To subscribe, please click here.
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