ASIA PACIFIC. A new survey by Collinson and CAPA Centre for Aviation of more than 400 C-suite and senior managerial level travel industry experts reveals that 37% of respondents are now expecting a full recovery to 2019 pre-pandemic air traffic levels in 2023. The number is a modest increase from the 35% recorded in a similar survey this April.
However, the belief among the experts that herd immunity for COVID-19 will be reached in the US, UK and a few other developed countries has slipped from 33% to 24% between the two surveys. Additionally, concerns around quarantine and fraudulent COVID-19 test results remain a worry for respondents.
The latest survey – named the Asia Pacific Travel Recovery Report – was conducted during September in a bid to generate new insights into the travel industry’s recovery and predict key elements of the new traveller experience. We focus on some of the key findings below.
Border reopening
An increasing number of experts now expect border reopening arrangements by governments to ease or substantially ease in 2022 (43%).
A third of global respondents (32%) still expect border reopening arrangements by governments to evolve at different rates in 2022. This is a significant reduction from the 56% number recorded in the April 2021 survey, where uncertainty dominated.
Testing to remain, with quarantine phased out
Signalling confidence in testing protocols enabling a safer return to travel, over half of the travel experts surveyed (54% – +3 percentage points since April) expect robust COVID-19 testing to remain key to reopening borders until the end of 2022. A further 26% expect this to be the case until the end of 2023.
This mindset can be seen by the recent border reopening in markets such as Singapore, Australia and the US, Collinson and CAPA noted – all of which cite COVID-19 tests as core components for reduced quarantine or even quarantine-free travel.
Meanwhile, 74% of experts are concerned by reports of fraudulent COVID-19 test results and vaccination passports. Levels of those ‘very concerned’ are up from 38% in April 2021 to 41% in September 2021 and for ‘mildly concerned’ from 28% in April 2021 to 34% in September 2021.
To address such concerns, Collinson pointed out that it is partnering with over 30 airlines, airports and technology providers globally to help implement enhanced verification processes at key checkpoints in the journey, as well as to make trusted, accredited COVID-19 testing more easily accessible to travellers.
Globally, just below three quarters (72%) shared the view that traveller vaccine documentation is of ‘vital importance’, with most governments not risking reopening borders without them. This is an increase of +5% when compared to the April study. Conversely, less than a fifth (18%) considered them ‘not important’.
Almost two-fifths of experts (38%) now expect quarantine measures will remain in place for the foreseeable future as an extra safety precaution in addition to vaccinations and testing, up from 23% in April 2021.
Meanwhile, a larger number of industry leaders remain hopeful regarding imminent action in this area. 42% believe quarantine measures will be phased out by the close of 2021, in line with vaccinations and testing measures becoming more widely available. However, the sentiment has decreased from the 58% recorded in April.
The traveller’s state of mind
A large proportion of experts believe that travel is ‘extremely safe’ if everyone adheres to preventative solutions (e.g. mask wearing, social distancing). However, that figure has dropped by a notable -17 percentage points (42% recorded in September; 59% in April), suggesting a dip in confidence despite the widespread vaccine rollout.
Similarly, insiders considering travel as simply ‘not safe’ has more than doubled from 4% in April 2021 to 10% in September 2021. The report’s authors say this is indicative of the need to reassure, educate and communicate to passengers how safety remains the utmost priority, particularly as more travellers take to the skies.
More than three-quarters of experts (79%) believe that travel will feel ‘more stressful’ than before the pandemic (up from 70% in April).
Collinson suggested that this could lead to a boost for areas such as fast-track access, lounge experiences, other pre-flight relaxation activities and digital F&B ordering to make journeys through the airport less stressful.
Slow reboot for business travel
In predicting business travel levels in 2022, just over a third (35%) of respondents expect a 41-60% recovery to 2019 pre-pandemic levels of short-haul business travel, while 23% are more positive and expect to hit 61-80% of 2019 levels next year. Only 8% see 80%+ of 2019 levels in 2022.
The report notes that the revival of long-haul business travel remains the furthest from reach. Recovery to 2019 levels is expected to take longer than any of the other segments, with respondents becoming less confident in the timescale of segment recovery, due to travel restrictions remaining imposed far longer than previously anticipated.
According to 86% of respondents, less than two-thirds of the long-haul business/corporate travel market will be back next year. In Asia Pacific, just under a third (30%) of survey respondents believe that numbers won’t even reach 20% of 2019 levels next year.
Survey reaction
Reflecting on the research, Collinson Asia Pacific President Todd Handcock said: “This ongoing research is critical to understanding industry sentiment, and in turn taking required actions to further support the safe, long-term return of global travel.
“Whilst travel recovery progress isn’t happening at the pace we had hoped for, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, we are seeing steps in the right direction more generally, namely a reprioritisation of travelling safely, purposely and responsibly.”
He added: “For the next six to twelve months at the very least, it’s clear that as an industry we need to continue to innovate, and better communicate advances to travellers. Tools and solutions that help travellers to navigate their way safely but efficiently, causing the least stress as possible, is a core focus.”
CAPA – Centre for Aviation Managing Director Derek Sadubin said: “It has been a privilege to yet again work with Collinson, a global leader in traveller experiences, to further evaluate how our audience of senior experts see the future travel landscape taking shape.
“The findings are both insightful, and in some cases surprising. Overall, we must come together as an industry and use these insights to help identify where attention is required to progress the return of global travel.”
Download the full Asia Pacific Travel Recovery Report here.
