“Hong Kong is a city suddenly gripped with fear. An outbreak of severe pneumonia that has jumped from person to person, spread around the world by air travellers, has turned a once self-confident metropolis into ground zero of a global health crisis.”
Fear in Asia: The Wall Street Journal’s March article describes the mood of panic in Hong Kong caused by the continuing spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which has resulted in over 800 deaths worldwide and affected over 8,450. It is the latest, terrible blow to hit the world travel industry and has had a major impact on Asian travel and travel retail, as well as Toronto, Canada, the worst-affected region outside Asia.
From March 2003 , we presented a regularly updated chronology of events below. The “number of deaths and number infected worldwide” are official World Health Organization (WHO) figures rather than newspaper reports, which tend to vary considerably. SARS appears, at least for now, to be coming to an end. But it will go down in the annals of travel retail history as one of the worst crises to ever hit the business.
UPDATE 24 JUNE
CHINA. The World Health Organization (WHO) this morning announced that travel is now safe all over the world, as the SARS virus continues to fade away. In a watershed moment for all travel-related sectors, the WHO today lifted its final travel advisory, which had stipulated that people should postpone all but essential travel to Beijing, China. Beijing was the last area in the world to which this advice still applied.
The recommendation was issued on 23 April and had devastated Beijing’s travel and travel retail businesses. The last new case in Beijing was isolated on 29 May. No cases have recently been exported from Beijing and all recent cases have been traced to known chains of transmission.
“We are changing the travel advice for Beijing effective Tuesday, June 24,” said Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, director-general of the WHO. “Beijing is the last area to which WHO recommended that people should postpone all but essential travel. This is very good news and shows the great progress the world has made against SARS.”
Beijing, with a cumulative total of 2,521 probable cases and 191 deaths, has had the largest outbreak of SARS anywhere in the world, followed by Hong Kong, with 1,755 cumulative cases and 296 deaths, and Guangdong Province, China, with 1,511 cumulative cases and 57 deaths.
UPDATE 23 JUNE
INTERNATIONAL. Last Thursday marked the 100th day since the World Health Organization (WHO) first alerted the world, on 12 March, to the SARS threat. And, gratifyingly, the day that the virus was officially declared “under control”. The WHO said in a statement: “From the 55 cases recognized on that day, alarmingly concentrated in hospitals in Hong Kong, Hanoi, and Singapore, the outbreak exploded within a month to cause some 3000 cases and more than 100 deaths in 20 countries on all continents.
“The number of cases passed 4,000 on 23 April and then rapidly soared to 5,000 on 28 April, 6,000 on 2 May, and 7,000 on 8 May, when cases were reported from 30 countries. During the peak of the global outbreak, near the start of May, more than 200 new cases were being reported each day. Detection of new infections subsequently slowed, passing 8,000 on 22 May.” During June, the number of new cases has gradually dwindled to the present daily handful. The WHO said it is confident that all countries that have experienced outbreaks are disclosing cases fully and promptly, adding “SARS is too big a disease to hide for long”.
It commented: “The global outbreak, at least in this initial phase, is clearly coming under control”¦ the dramatic reduction in the number of SARS cases is the result of monumental efforts on the part of governments and health care staff, supported by a well-informed and cooperative public. The achievement is all the more impressive when viewed against the nature of SARS as an especially difficult and dangerous new disease.”
UPDATE 17 JUNE
TAIWAN. The travel warning issued for Taiwan has been lifted by the World Health Organization after a steep drop in the number of new cases of SARS.
The news came as scientists, doctors and government officials at the world’s first global conference on the virus in Kuala Lumpur heard that the disease is being contained but the fight is not over.
Further sign of progress were signalled by the WHO’s David Heyman who told a news conference that Hong Kong could be taken off the UN agency’s list of SARS-affected areas as early as next week. The territory has already been removed from the travel warning list.
Taiwan has been cleared for travel immediately. “The SARS crisis in Taiwan has been taken very seriously at all levels, from the government and health care staff to the general public,” said Cathy Roth, a WHO virologist who was in the country last month to assess the need for a strengthened response. The country, which experienced the third largest outbreak on record, initially had only a few imported cases.
Worldwide, SARS has killed around 800 people and infected 8,400 others since it was first detected in Southern China last November.
CANADA. Canadian air traffic numbers fell heavily in April, putting an end to a recovery from the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, according to Nav Canada.
“We continue to compare traffic to fiscal year 2000-01 to highlight the degree of recovery to pre-9/11 levels,” said Arthur Andreassen, Nav Canada’s director of rates and revenues. “While monthly traffic until March was up from last year, there was still a substantial gap compared to 2000-01,” Andreassen said.
“In April, this gap increased when traffic levels fell below last year, due to the impact of the war in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS.”
The country’s international passenger numbers were hit hard by the WHO travel advisory issued and later rescinded in April for Toronto. Nav Canada provides information and services related to air traffic control, flight and aeronautical information, weather briefings, airport advisory services and electronic aids to navigation.
UPDATE 13 JUNE
CHINA. Effective 13 June, the World Health Organization has removed its recommendation that people should postpone all but essential travel to China’s Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Tianjin regions.
Recommendations to consider postponing all but essential travel to these regions of China were issued on 23 April and 8 May in order to minimize the international spread of SARS. The WHO said the situation in these areas has improved significantly.
However travel advisories remain in place against all but essential travel to Taiwan and Beijing – the only locations in the world with such limits.
Additionally, the WHO is removing Guangdong, Hebei, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Tianjin from the list of areas with recent local transmission. This follows confirmation that there have been no new cases isolated in any of these areas for more than twice the maximum incubation period, in other words more than 20 days.
As of 13 June, 8,454 cases had been reported worldwide, with 10 new probable cases in the preceding 24 hours. There have been 792 deaths from SARS.
UPDATE 12 JUNE
FRANCE. Rémy Cointreau will take an estimated €10 million (US$11.8 million) hit on operating profit due to the impact of SARS on Asian operations and reduced travel affecting duty-free sales. Chief financial officer Bruno Mouclier said he estimated SARS could result in a €25 million (US$29.4 million) impact on revenue between April and the end of July.
On a constant currency basis, that means revenue in the first quarter of the current financial year could be lower than the same period last year, Mouclier added. But chief executive Dominique Heriard-Dubreuil said the company believes the effect will have worn off by August as fears surrounding the virus ease.
VIETNAM. Hanoi hotels are reporting a surge in tourist bookings for this month, following a decline of more than -50% in May visitor numbers. The Sofitel Metropole Hotel told Vietnam News that though the number of bookings only increased marginally in May, it has already shot up +35% this month. Large hotels have begun fighting back, launching special promotion programmes since May to attract more international guests. These programmes are scheduled to run till October. The Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, Vietnam Airlines and 15 travel companies will begin a big tourism promotion campaign to sell the country as a safe destination at the end of July. According to VNAT, the number of foreign arrivals to the country declined in May to 99,900, from 155,000 in April.
UPDATE 11 JUNE
CHINA. China Eastern Airlines Corp, China’s second largest carrier, said on Wednesday that its passenger traffic plunged -83.9% in May, year-on-year, as SARS devastated its business. The Shanghai-based airline carried just 162,540 passengers in May. As reported earlier, its larger rival, China Southern Airlines Co said it carried -83% fewer passengers in the same month as the country’s SARS epidemic deterred leisure and business travel.
However, SARS is now in steep decline in China. Yesterday the World Health Organization reported just one new case in mainland China (plus one each in Hong Kong and Taiwan). Mainland China has been responsible for 5,329 of the 8,435 cases worldwide and 343 of the 789 deaths. Airlines and travel-related businesses are hopeful of a strong second half recovery once traveller confidence that China is a safe destination returns. But it may not be till the final quarter than any real upturn occurs. And that is a long time off for the country’s duty free retail business.
The traffic downturn was reflected by Beijing Capital International Airport Co, which said earlier today that passenger traffic fell -86.5% in May compared with a year earlier. Traffic on international routes fell -87.5%. Flights to Hong Kong and Macau were worst hit, with passenger traffic shrinking by an incredible -91.3% as the SARS outbreak reached its peak. A World Health Organization travel advisory is still in place on Beijing and other parts of the country, but an advisory on Hong Kong and the southern Chinese province of Guangdong was lifted late last month.
UPDATE 7 JUNE
CHINA. The number of Japanese travellers to China in April fell -54.8%, marking the first drop in 13 months. The China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) said that fears over SARS in China was the main cause for the plunge in arrivals to 97,800, the first time since January 1998 that the count fell below the 100,000 level. Since March 2002, traffic to China has shown double-digit growth, said CNTA. The drop in April reflects the suspension of tours to the country by major travel agencies following the travel warnings by the World Health Organization and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA).
In the first four months of 2003, arrivals from Japan reached 854,000, up +3.0% compared to the same period a year ago. All tourism in China has been practically brought to a standstill for more than a month but could return gradually, starting in June, CNTA said. While domestic tourism inside each province will be decided by each regional administration, visitors can already return to Guangdong and the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, the office said on its website. But trips organised overseas will still be held up until the CNTA gives its approval.
The restriction may be removed in July, “except for provinces where the warnings of the World Health Organization (WHO) have not been lifted,” it said. WHO currently maintains warnings for Shanxi, Mongolia and Hebei provinces in northern China as well as the cities of Beijing and Tianjin. Due to SARS, the number of tourists to Beijing is expected to fall by -44% in 2003, from last year’s 3.1million, according to a projection by CNTA. Beijing is the city in the world most affected by SARS with more than 2,500 cases.
INTERNATIONAL. The SARS crisis continued to improve yesterday with only nine probable new cases reported worldwide by the World Health Organization (WHO). Four of these were in Toronto, Canada, two in Hong Kong, and one each in mainland China, Taiwan and the US. As of 6 June, a cumulative total of 8,404 probable cases with 779 deaths has been reported from 29 countries, said the WHO.
In related news, Singapore Changi International Airport will soon become the world’s first airport to implement new measures to guard against the spread of SARS, in accordance with procedures set out by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Changi was chosen as the test case partly due to Singapore’s rapid response to SARS; it was the first airport to introduce thermal scanners to screen passengers for fevers. Since then, Singapore has also provided such scanners on loan to Toronto for use in that city’s airport exit screening.
The WHO said: “If Changi is determined to be taking all the necessary steps in accordance with the International Civil Aviation Organization guidelines, which are in turn based on WHO recommendations, the airport will receive a certificate. The global aviation body is readying a scheme to evaluate how well airports enforce anti-SARS measures, which include specific procedures for screening passengers and airport workers. The measures also include distributing SARS information to passengers and guidance on handling suspected cases already on board aircraft and at their destinations.
It added: “Since the start of the SARS outbreak, when it became apparent that travel was capable of spreading the disease globally, WHO has collaborated with non-governmental organizations such as the International Air Transport Association and the International Civil Aviation Organization to promote the adoption of measures aimed at preventing the spread of SARS via air travel.”
FRANCE. Flag carrier Air France said its passenger traffic fell -8.9% in May year-on-year. It blamed the SARS virus for hurting Asian travel, as well as air traffic controller strikes in France. The carrier, majority-owned by the French government, said its load factor declined by -2.2 points to 72.0% in May. Load factor is a key measure of an airline’s success in filling its seats.
Air France’s traffic on its Asian network fell -36.7% from May a year ago, compared with a -29.5% year-on-year drop in April. The airline said it also cut back capacity in the region by -23.4%, compared with -6.0% in April.
UPDATE 6 JUNE
INTERNATIONAL. The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) said this week that job losses from SARS in four places – China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam – could be as high as 7 million if tourism-related sectors, such as retail and catering, were included in the figures. “Unexpectedly, the impact of SARS on our region has been greater than September 11, the Bali bombs, and the Iraq war,” PATA president Peter de Jong told reporters in Bangkok. “The downturn in tourism affects many people who really feel the pinch,” he said, adding that most tourism jobs in the Asia Pacific region were in small-and medium-sized businesses.
PATA launched a US$500,000 public relations campaign in Bangkok today in an attempt to convince tourists the worst of the SARS outbreak is over.
UPDATE 5 JUNE
INTERNATIONAL. There was more good news today regarding the SARS crisis as only six new cases were reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Five of these were in Toronto, Canada and one in Taiwan. Crucially, not a single case was reported in mainland China nor Hong Kong. As of 5 June, a cumulative total of 8,403 probable cases with 775 deaths has been reported from 29 countries, said the WHO.
Importantly, it said that local chains of transmission are occurring only in Toronto and several parts of China. All other countries with imported cases have managed either to prevent transmission entirely or limit additional cases to very small numbers.
NETHERLANDS. Dutch airline KLM said yesterday that passenger traffic in May fell -10%, primarily due to the SARS virus. In the Asia-Pacific region, passenger numbers were down -35% with flights to Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai particularly affected. Underlining the recovery in the Middle East from the Iraq war, the -10% drop in Middle East flight passengers was less pronounced than in previous months and, with capacity down -14%, the load factor rose +3.1% to 73.3%.
UPDATE 2 JUNE
As of today, a cumulative total of 8,384 probable cases and 770 deaths has been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 27 new cases and deaths compared with the last report on Saturday. The new deaths were reported in China (2) and Hong Kong (4). Probable new cases were reported in Canada (10), Taiwan (8), Hong Kong (7) and China (2).
CANADA. Health and tourism authorities professed themselves deeply concerned at the weekend as the country’s new SARS outbreak worsened. The country’s death toll from SARS edged up to 31 yesterday amid fears that the virus may be spreading outside Toronto. The most recent WHO statistics (for 31 May) report 29 probable new cases in Canada in the previous 24 hours, out of just 44 worldwide. The country has taken over the unwelcome tag of global epicentre of the virus from Taiwan.
There are now 52 “active probable cases” of SARS in the Toronto province of Ontario. Another 233 people have been treated and discharged from hospital. As of yesterday, there were 5,237 people, including 487 health care workers, in quarantine. Worldwide, 8,360 SARS cases had been reported by 31 May, including 764 deaths. The disease has now been reported in 32 countries, although China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore are, by far, the hardest hit. Canada’s lingering outbreak is the worst outside Asia.
JAPAN. The number of Japanese who travelled abroad in April fell by more than -40% year-on-year, bringing the monthly figure down to a level not seen since 1989. Specialist Japanese travel publication Travel Journal International Online (TJI) blamed the combined effect of the war in Iraq, SARS and Japan’s ailing economy. The provisional monthly outbound figure reached 720,000, a fall of just under -42.0%, according to the Japan National Tourist Organization (JNTO).
TJI said: “The impact of SARS on travel to China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore was more significant since these countries make up the core of travel to Asia”¦ and 45% of all Japanese travellers heading overseas.” The April count is far worse even than that following the September 11 terrorist attacks in the US, which saw Japanese outbound numbers plummet to 860,698 in October 2001.
The rate of decrease was only exceeded in Japanese travel history by the -43.8% year-on-year fall seen in November 2001. Japan has suffered no cases of SARS but the notorious concern of its citizens for their safety when travelling has led to the downturn.
THAILAND. Thai visitor arrivals dropped nearly -60% year-on-year in May as people cut down on travel in Asia because of SARS, Thai Tourism and Sports Minister Sontaya Kunplome said today. The sharp decline follows a -46% drop in April and a -12% fall in March, the first month that SARS began to hurt tourism flows. Earlier, tourist arrivals were up by around +5% on year in January and February, Sontaya said.
The minister said he expected a rebound to start in June thanks in part to the easing of travel restrictions for several areas affected by SARS, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Vietnam. “There are positive signs that point toward an improvement of the situation in June. Thai Airways International is telling us that bookings for the later part of the month are improving,” he told reporters. The airline said last week its passenger traffic dropped by a third in April because of SARS.
Sontaya expects a recent promotion road show in Japan and upcoming road shows in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea and other countries to restore confidence in the safety of visiting Thailand, and to lure tourists back in large numbers. The Tourism Authority of Thailand said earlier it expected full year arrivals to decline -2.9% to 10.6 million compared with a pre-SARS forecast of an + 8.3% growth from last year’s 10.9 million.
UPDATE 31 MAY
SINGAPORE. Effective 31 May, Singapore has been removed from the World Health Organization’s (WHO) list of areas with recent local transmission of SARS. The change in status comes 20 days after the last locally acquired case was placed in isolation, on 11 May. The WHO said that the 20-day period represents twice the maximum incubation period – a reliable indication that a chain of transmission has been broken.
“From the start, Singapore’s handling of its SARS outbreak has been exemplary,” said Dr David Heymann, executive director for Communicable Diseases at the WHO. “This is an inspiring victory that should make all of us optimistic that SARS can be contained everywhere.” The news will come as a huge boost to Singapore’s tourism, travel and travel retail sectors, which have been devastated by the SARS-related downturn. The WHO declaration means travellers into and out of Singapore will no longer have to be screened, which is good news for airlines who have suffered from the crisis.
In other SARS news, the virus has spread to Russia, officials have confirmed. The country’s first known case of the disease was found in the far-eastern town of Blagoveschensk, near the border with China. The patient, a man aged 25, had been suspected for some time of having the illness. “The diagnosis is unquestionable: this is Sars,” Gennady Onishchenko, Russia’s chief epidemiologist, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying. The man had stayed in a hotel in Blagoveshchensk often used by traders and tourists from China.
In Taiwan, just seven cases were reported yesterday, a clear sign of the continued waning of the disease indicated earlier in the week. Mainland China reported just seven cases and Hong Kong four. Canada was the worst-affected country yesterday with eight reported probable new cases.
As of 30 May, a cumulative total of 8,317 cases with 754 deaths had been reported worldwide.
UPDATE 30 MAY
INTERNATIONAL. In a statement that will send a surge of confidence through the global travel retail trade, the World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday said that it was “cautiously optimistic that SARS outbreaks in mainland China are being brought under control”. And it said the Taiwanese crisis “has begun to decline”.
Yesterday, China reported just three new probable cases, all in Beijing. All three patients had previously been classified as suspect cases and were already hospitalized. The WHO attributed the rapid improvement to good surveillance and reporting systems and good infection control in hospitals.
In stricken Taiwan, too, the crisis is easing. On 28 May, the island reported 22 new probable cases of SARS and five new deaths, marking the continuation of a downward trend that became apparent earlier in the week. Yesterday, just 10 cases were reported by the WHO.
“With the backlog of pending cases now cleared, the low number of genuine new cases reported today and yesterday indicates that the outbreak in Taiwan has begun to decline,” said WHO in a statement issued before yesterday’s even more encouraging statistics were revealed.
As of yesterday, a cumulative total of 8,295 cases with 750 deaths had been reported from 28 countries.
UPDATE 29 MAY
As of 28 May, a cumulative total of 8,240 probable cases with 745 deaths has been reported from 28 countries. The new deaths occurred in China (4), Hong Kong SAR (1), and Taiwan (5).
UPDATE 28 MAY
As of 27 May, a cumulative total of 8,221 probable SARS cases with 735 deaths has been reported from 28 countries. The new deaths occurred in China (4), Hong Kong SAR (2), and Taiwan (4).
Today in Geneva, more than 190 countries participating in the World Health Assembly – the supreme governing body of WHO – unanimously approved a resolution on SARS. The resolution, which recognizes SARS as “the first severe infectious disease to emerge in the twenty-first century”, calls for the full support of all countries to control SARS and other emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. It also urges countries “to report cases promptly and transparently and to provide requested information to WHO.” Countries are further asked to request WHO support when “control measures employed are ineffective in halting the spread of disease.”
UPDATE 27 MAY
As of 26 May, a cumulative total of 8,202 probable cases with 725 deaths has been reported from 28 countries. This represents an increase of 96 probable cases and 29 deaths compared with the most recent report on Saturday. The new deaths occurred in Canada (3), China (9), Hong Kong SAR (5), and Taiwan (12).
Taiwan, reporting 62 probable cases over the past two days, continues to have the most rapidly growing outbreak. With a cumulative total of 585 probable cases, Taiwan now has more than twice the caseload of Singapore (206 probable cases), which was among the most severely-affected initial outbreak sites.
UPDATE 26 MAY
CANADA. Toronto’s renewed SARS crisis worsened on Sunday with news that eight probable new cases have been added to the latest outbreak, including two patients who have died. Local officials now fear the city will again be declared a “no go” zone by the World Health Organization (WHO). In addition to the probably eight cases, there are 26 suspected cases of SARS and at least eight other people under investigation in a new and disturbing cluster. It stems from an outbreak at North York General Hospital announced last week.
It seems inevitable that the new outbreak will put Toronto on the WHO’s list of areas with local recent transmission of SARS – and that means an international travel advisory. “It wouldn’t surprise me if a travel advisory was put on Toronto. It wouldn’t surprise me if the WHO put us back on the list that they took us off last week,” said Colin D’Cunha, Ontario’s chief medical officer. The new cases announced yesterday were the first recorded in the city since 19 April. This new outbreak, which has since forced ward closings in some city hospitals, went undetected for weeks.
The WHO removed the Canadian city from the list of areas with recent local transmission of SARS and lifted its advisory pertaining to international travel on 14 May. The earlier outbreak devastated international traffic levels in and out of Toronto airport, hurting travel retail operations there badly.
UPDATE 25 MAY
MALAYSIA. The government has reacted positively to the SARS-led problems faced by the country’s travel and tourism sectors with a wide-ranging assistance package for travel-related companies, as well as extending airport retail contracts for a further two years. Duty-free contracts at Kuala Lumpur International airport, due to expire at the end of June, are to be extended for two years from July 1, said Syed Ahmad Syed Salim, chief executive officer of Eraman, the wholly-owned subsidiary and retail arm of Malaysia Airports Berhad and leading airport retailer in Malaysia.
Ahmad told The Moodie Report: “The government was already looking at introducing some form of economic aid package to cushion the effect of the slow world economic performance as well as the Iraq war. When the SARS epidemic happened, the immediate impact on the tourism sector was bad and this included retail operators at the airport. We are indeed thankful to the government for showing understanding during these trying times. It clearly shows that we have a business-friendly government.”
Other assistance includes a -50% rent discount for duty free and travel retailers at the country’s international airports. Ahmad commented: “The relief in the form of a -50% rental reduction will definitely help to overcome the current soft market environment in the travel industry due to SARS and the weak world economy.”
UPDATE 24 MAY
CANADA. Four people are ill and hundreds are facing quarantine in Toronto, Canada after a potential new outbreak of SARS was announced on 22 May. “Clinically, we think this is SARS,” said Dr Donald Low, an infectious disease expert at Mount Sinai Hospital. None of the patients in the new cluster meet the World Health Organization’s (WHO) definition of probable SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) because they cannot be traced to known cases, but concern mounted after a deep specimen from the lung of one of the four patients tested positive for the corona virus late yesterday.
Toronto’s tourism sector was hit badly the earlier outbreak of SARS, which affected the city more than any other location outside Asia. Prior to this development, the SARS outbreak appeared to be over in Toronto. Only seven SARS cases remained in hospital. To date, 24 people have died of SARS in Toronto and more than 19,000 have been quarantined in the province since the outbreak began. As of 14 May, there had not been any new local transmissions into the community for 20 days – twice the official incubation period.
INTERNATIONAL. Taiwan reported 55 probable new SARS cases yesterday, bringing its total to 538 cases with 60 deaths. Worldwide, the total of probable SARS cases reached 8,117 on 23 May with 689 deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). These figures represent an increase of 77 new cases when compared with a day earlier. New cases also occurred in China (20) and Hong Kong (2).
The WHO this week advised against any non-essential travel to any part of Taiwan but on Friday lifted a similar order on Hong Kong and Guangdong province, China. The recommendation to consider postponing all but essential travel to Hong Kong and Guangdong was issued on 2 April in order to minimize the international spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The WHO said it was changing this recommendation “as the situation in these areas has now improved significantly”.
Recommendations to postpone travel are issued following consideration of several factors, including the magnitude of probable SARS cases, the pattern of recent local transmission, and the last dates of export of cases. On 27 March, the WHO recommended that all areas with recent local transmission should screen all international departing passengers to ensure that those who are sick with SARS or are contacts of SARS cases do not travel. This recommendation is still valid for both Hong Kong and Guangdong.
“We are changing the travel advice for Hong Kong and Guangdong effective Friday, 23 May,” said WHO director-general Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland. “Guangdong was the first place in the world to have cases of SARS but I am pleased to note that due to the efforts of the local and national health authorities, with support from WHO and partners, the outbreaks in Guangdong and in Hong Kong are being contained.”
In Hong Kong, the three-day average number of new cases has remained below five over the last six days and the pattern of the outbreak shows a sustained decline since the peak of new cases in late March. The total number of people who are still infectious (all of whom are in hospital) has fallen below 60, although there are other former SARS patients who are still convalescing or being treated for other conditions in hospital. All new cases in the past 20 days have occurred in people who were already identified as contacts of a person with SARS and under active surveillance by the local health authorities. There have been no recent reports of internationally exported cases from Hong Kong.
In Guangdong province, the three-day average number of new cases has been below five for 11 days and the number of SARS patients in hospital fell below 60 on May 20. Due to the efforts of the provincial health authorities, the extent of local transmission has fallen to low levels over recent weeks. There have been no recent reports of internationally exported cases from Guangdong province. The WHO has also reviewed the travel recommendations for other areas of China, including Beijing, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Taiwan and Tianjin. The WHO recommendations to consider postponing non-essential travel to these areas remain in place. The WHO reviews travel recommendations regularly.
UPDATE 22 MAY
ASIA. Taiwan reported 65 probable new SARS cases today, its biggest one-day jump, bringing its total to 483 cases with 60 deaths. Worldwide, the total of probable SARS cases broke through the 8,000 barrier today, to 8,046 with 682 deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). These figures represent an increase of 95 new cases and 16 deaths when compared with yesterday. New cases also occurred in China (26), Hong Kong (3) and Macao (1). The WHO this week advised against any non-essential travel to any part of Taiwan.
Worldwide, SARS has spread with devastating speed, though that pace is now slowing outside Taiwan. The total of probable global cases surpassed 5,000 on 28 April, 6,000 on 2 May, and 7,000 on 8 May. Meanwhile, the WHO has updated its statistics on cases of inflight transmission of SARS. The number of flights during which transmission of the virus may have occurred remains at just four. But the total number of cases resulting from exposure during these four flights has been revised to 27. One flight alone, CA112, which flew from Hong Kong to Beijing on 15 March, is now known to have accounted for 22 of the 27 cases.
UPDATE 21 MAY
HONG KONG. Regional carrier Dragonair said its April passenger numbers declined -76.0% year-on-year to 71,283, due to the outbreak of SARS. From January to April, Dragonair flew a total of 939,759 passengers, down -6.3% year-on-year. “The SARS outbreak had a sudden and sharp impact on travel, and as a result we had to scale back flights by -50% in April from planned frequencies,” Dragonair ceo Stanley Hui said.
“The outbreak appears to be easing in Hong Kong, but until it is brought under control in our two major markets of China and Taiwan, and the quarantine measures for arrival passengers are lifted in certain cities, the travel market will continue to be very slow,” Hui added.
UPDATE 20 MAY
AUSTRALIA. Tourist arrivals to Australia showed their biggest drop in April since records began 33 years ago, hitting a five-year low as the SARS outbreak kept Asian travellers away. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced today total tourist numbers fell by -11% in April to 327,000, a five-year low. The number of tourist visitors has dropped -21% since January 2003. Visitor numbers from Asia fell most sharply in April, with southeast Asian tourists down -40% from a year ago at 33,800 and arrivals from northeast Asia (Japan and South Korea) down -28% at 75,600. Meanwhile, Qantas Airways recently cut flights from Asia and axed 1,000 staff as the turmoil has forced Australia’s leading carrier to make cutbacks.
Tourism is Australia’s fourth-biggest foreign exchange earner and the decline this year has wiped A$328 million (US$171 million) off export income, officials said. Speaking to Reuters, UBS Warburg senior economist Scott Haslem said a -20% fall in tourist arrivals could knock about a quarter of a percentage point off the country’s total GDP growth.
CHINA. Beijing Capital International Airport Co said yesterday that the SARS caused a -55.2% drop in international traffic in April. International aircraft movements fell -10.6% for the month. The airport’s duty free sales have been drastically affected by the traffic downturn, local sources say. The location generated sales of US$22 million in 200, according to Generation DataBank, but that is believed to have risen sharply last year as the Chinese travel market boomed. Beijing Airport said its aeronautical revenue will be further affected by the Civil Aviation Administration of China’s announcement of a -20% reduction in charges for overseas airlines using the mainland’s airports between May and July to help offset the impact of SARS.
UPDATE 19 MAY
As of today, a cumulative total of 7,864 probable SARS cases with 643 deaths have been reported from 28 countries. This represents an increase of 116 new cases and 20 deaths when compared with the last global update on Saturday. The new deaths occurred in China (7), Hong Kong (8), and Taiwan (5).
GERMANY. Frankfurt airport received more than 3.7 million passengers in April, a decline of -5.2% compared to 2002. This compares with March 2003, when Frankfurt airport recorded 3.8 million passengers, a dip of-5.3%. Asian traffic experienced an unusual double-digit collapse in passenger traffic due to the SARS outbreak. In particular, an above average number of travellers avoided China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. For the January to April 2003 period, Frankfurt’s total passenger traffic was down -1.1% to 14,278,761.
UPDATE 17 MAY
As of 16 May, a cumulative total of 7,739 probable SARS cases and 611 deaths have been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 54 new cases and 13 deaths compared with a day earlier. The new deaths occurred in China (4), Hong Kong (4), and Taiwan (5).
China yesterday reported 39 new probable SARS cases and four new deaths, bringing the cumulative total to 5,191 probable cases and 275 deaths. Beijing reported 28 probable SARS cases today in the sixth consecutive day that the city has reported less than 50 probable SARS. From the last week of April through 3 May, Beijing was reporting a daily average of more than 100 probable cases. The daily number of new deaths has also declined from a peak of 15, reported on 22 April, to an average of four during the past week. Beijing reported a single death yesterday. While WHO experts interpret the decrease in case numbers as encouraging, they have cautioned against concluding that the city’s SARS cases were on a downward trend. They warned that misdiagnosis of cases could have contributed to the lower numbers of probable cases in recent days. WHO officials fear that patients with milder symptoms of SARS are being excluded as probable cases.
UPDATE 16 MAY
AUSTRIA. Vienna International airport recorded a slight decline of -1.1% in the number of passengers for April 2003, bucking the upward trend recorded at the start of the year. Flughafen Wien said this was the result of changes in travel behaviour following SARS infections in Asia and the war in Iraq. A reduction in flight frequencies to Asia also led to a decrease of -10.0% in transfer passengers. Flight movements rose by +2.0% for the reporting period. From January to April the number of passengers has risen overall by +4.7% at Vienna and the number of transfer passengers has risen +4.9%.
ASIA. Taiwan’s devastated travel business received more bad news yesterday as 26 more probable new cases of SARS were reported on the island over the previous day. World Health Organization (WHO) statistics now rank Taiwan just below mainland China in the number of new cases reported since a day earlier. China reported 52 new probable cases and four deaths, bringing the cumulative total in mainland China to 5,163 probable cases and 271 deaths. Taiwan has 264 probable cases and 30 deaths. Hong Kong reported five new probable cases (and seven deaths) and the Philippines two.
The other current hot spot, Singapore, reported no new probable cases yesterday. As of yesterday, a cumulative total of 7,699 probable cases and 598 deaths have been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 85 new cases and 11 deaths compared with a day earlier.
UPDATE 15 MAY
INTERNATIONAL. Toronto’s travel and travel retail sectors received a huge boost yesterday as the World Health Organization (WHO) removed the Canadian city from the list of areas with recent local transmission of SARS and, more critically, lifted its advisory pertaining to international travel. Toronto had been declared a no-go area for international travellers, a move that had devastated the city’s travel-related businesses. The WHO consideration for lifting the advisory was whether 20 days had passed since the last locally-acquired case was isolated or died. If no further cases have occurred for 20 days – twice the maximum incubation period for SARS – the chain of transmission is considered broken.
News elsewhere was less encouraging. Singaporean health officials reported yesterday a cluster of 24 patients and six nurses from the Institute of Mental Health who have recently developed fevers. All but one of the patients was from a single ward at the Institute. In Taiwan, another 31 probable new cases were reported, while single probable new cases were reported in South Korean and Thailand – countries largely unaffected to date. Other new cases were reported in China (55) and Hong Kong (9).
As of 14 May, a cumulative total of 7,628 probable cases and 587 deaths have been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 97 cases and 14 deaths from the day before.
UPDATE 14 MAY
SOUTH KOREA. In news that underlines the catastrophic effect war and SARS has had on Asian travel businesses, Korean Air (KAL) today posted a KRW 180 billion (US$150.6 million) first-quarter net loss against a KRW 29.1 billion profit for the same period last year. KAL said it swung into the red in the first quarter because of the impact of the deadly SARS virus, the war in Iraq and a weak global economy. KAL is closing its downtown shops in Seoul and Cheju island as business conditions deteriorate sharply in South Korea. It has advised suppliers of the impending closures and has asked them to take back unsold stock. If that does not happen, goods will be sold at cost price. Suppliers have been asked to reply by 16 May. Passenger numbers at the country’s main gateway, Seoul Incheon International Airport, plunged -37.1% in April compared to the same month last year. Compared with the same period last year, the number of flights also decreased -5.1% to 9,594.
UPDATE 13 MAY
INTERNATIONAL As of today, a cumulative total of 7548 probable SARS cases with 573 deaths has been reported from 29 countries, said the WHO. This represents an increase of 111 new cases and 21 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in China (10), Hong Kong SAR (7), and Taiwan, China (4). China has reported today 80 new probable cases and 10 deaths, bringing the cumulative totals to 5086 probable cases and 262 deaths. New cases were concentrated in Beijing (48), Hebei (14), and Shanxi (13). Taiwan reported 23 new cases and 4 deaths, bringing the cumulative totals to 207 cases and 24 deaths.
Worryingly, India today reported two probable new cases, bringing its total to three.
AUSTRALIA. The Iraq war and the SARS epidemic have caused a dramatic decline in inbound tourism and may cost the Australian economy as much as A$2 billion (US$1.3 billion) in lost earnings, the Australian Tourism Export Council said last week. The Council said its latest market survey of major inbound tour operators has found that the June quarter is headed for a -25% fall in international visitors compared with a year ago. “This equates to a A$1 billion loss in foreign earnings for Australia for the second quarter alone,” said Council managing director Peter Shelley.
Shelley said many small tourism businesses are being hardest hit, while decisions about job cuts are now being made across the industry. March arrivals of overseas visitors were down -11% and the Council’s survey suggests April arrivals will drop -20%, May arrivals -30%, while June bookings are already heading -20% lower.
“For many Asian markets, including China and Hong Kong, our survey predicts the impact could be as high as 50% or more for an extended period of time,” said Shelley. “With the first two quarters of the year returning negative growth and the effect of SARS likely to be felt into the third quarter, the total economic loss to Australia is A$1 billion to A$2 billion,” he said.
NETHERLANDS. KLM, the Dutch flag carrier, said yesterday that the SARS virus had cost it €60 million (US$69 million) and warned it might have to make further cost cuts on top of those already announced. The Dutch airline said that during April, SARS cost it €2 million (US$2.3 million) a day in lost revenues.
KLM said it was countering the slump in demand by cutting flights to Asia by -25%. The figures confirmed chief executive Leo van Wijk’s comments in early April that the rapid spread of SARS would have a greater effect on the airline industry than the Iraq war. KLM said the war had cost it €40 million (US$46 million). Monday’s news followed last week’s announcement that losses at KLM, Europe’s fourth-largest carrier, had more than doubled in a year – the airline’s worst financial performance in its 84-year history. For the year to the end of March, net losses widened from €156 million (US$180 million) to €416 million (US$480 million). Operating losses fell from €94 million (US108 million) to €133 million (US$154 million).
UPDATE 11 MAY
As of 10 May, a cumulative total of 7296 probable SARS cases with 526 deaths have been reported from 30 countries. This represents an increase of 119 cases and 12 deaths when compared with the previous day.
Locations to have reported new cases since May 1 are Canada, China, Macao, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Colombia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, Poland, Singapore and the US.
UPDATE 9 MAY
SOUTH KOREA. Passenger numbers at Seoul Incheon International Airport plunged -37.1% in April compared to the same month last year. Total numbers fell to to 1.68 million, due to the aftermath of the Iraq War and, more particularly, fears related to SARS. Compared with the same period last year, the number of flights also decreased -5.1% to 9,594. However, the airport management said it expects the number of passengers to increase from the middle of this month as the effect of the SARS scare appears to be gradually diminishing.
UPDATE 7 MAY
JAPAN. Japan Airlines (JAL), the country’s leading carrier, said yesterday that international passenger demand during the key Golden Week holiday period declined -48% compared with the previous year – the biggest year-on-year decline ever. Both domestic and international travel period fell during the holiday, for the first time in six years, according to leading travel group, JTB. JTB blamed the sluggish economy, dates that fell awkwardly and SARS for the slump. The total number of travellers was down -3.2% to 21.8 million for the 24 April to 4 May period. Of these, 21.5 million travelled within Japan and only 314,000 went overseas, down -35.9% on 2002. Travel to Hong Kong was down by -88%; China was down by -36.7%; South Korea -23.5%; Taiwan -46.4% and Asia overall -39.5%. Travel to Hawaii was down -30.2%; Guam/Saipan -16.1% and to the US mainland -48.9%.
All Nippon Airways, Japan’s second-biggest carrier, said international demand fell -42.2% during Golden Week, while domestic passenger demand fell -8.4%. Japanese airlines – and therefore airports – are under huge pressure as passengers stay away in their thousands. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s said on Tuesday that its credit ratings on both Japan Airlines System and its main subsidiary, Japan Airlines, would remain on review with negative implications, due to “heightened concerns” over the group’s financial performance following the SARS outbreak.
UPDATE 5 MAY
INTERNATIONAL. The travel retail world continues to watch and hope that the SARS epidemic has peaked, amid mixed and often worrying messages from affected countries. The key indicator now is not total cases nor total deaths but new infections. The WHO recognises a 20-day period without new infections as implying the disease has peaked. Vietnam is such a case, where the last new case was 14 April. But areas to have recorded new cases since April 28 include: Canada, China, Hong Kong, Italy, Macao, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Poland, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and the US.
Although the hot spots are now limited to China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, the whole world – and travel retail industry – remains uneasy. Some 30 countries have now recorded cases, including Kuwait – the first Middle East country to be affected, though the victim is now recovered. Vigilance is particularly high in the Middle East as war-affected airports are desperate not to have their subsequent recoveries affected by a SARS outbreak. Transit passengers on planes from key affected countries are not being allowed to offload during stopovers in the UAE, for example, a further blow to retail spending.
Meanwhile, the WHO has found that objects such as door knobs and stair rails could transmit the virus. The WHO found that SARS can live for weeks outside the human body, and can survive for hours on many common surfaces. Until now, it was thought that the disease could only be spread through sneezing or coughing.
UPDATE 3 MAY
Number of deaths as at 3 May: 435
Number infected worldwide as at 3 May: 6,234
New cases since last WHO report: 191
As of today, a cumulative total of 6234 probable cases with 435 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 191 new cases and 18 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in China (9) and Hong Kong SAR (9). China reported an additional 166 probable SARS cases with 11 deaths, bringing the country’s cumulative total to 3,460 cases and 159 deaths. China now accounts for more probable cases than the rest of the world combined. Nine hospitals in the Chinese capital now deal exclusively with SARS patients.
GERMANY. Deutsche Lufthansa, Germany’s leading airline, remains pessimistic for 2003. The group announced last week that it would reduce the working hours of all its ground staff to 35 following a substantial drop in flight bookings as a result of the SARS crisis. Lufthansa revealed that it would also lay up another 15 aircraft.
JAPAN. As Golden Week draws to a close, the sluggish economy and SARS combined to depress both spending and numbers, according to Travel Journal International Online. Characteristic features of Golden Week travel in 2003 were the unfortunate calendar sequence which discouraged long trips; the sluggish economy which depressed young family and group bookings; the Iraq war and SARS epidemic which fundamentally delayed travel plans. The calendar sequence this year provided only one consecutive three-day holiday, from 3 May. It is six years since the numbers of both domestic and international travellers, and the total amount spent, all declined, said JTB. This was in 1997, when a similar calendar sequence led to a -1.9% drop in domestic travellers, a -14.8% drop in international travellers, and a -6.3% decrease in expenditure.
Travel to Hong Kong was down by -88%, China was down by -36.7%, South Korea -23.5%, Taiwan -46.4% and Asia overall -39.5%. Travel to Hawaii was down -30.2%, Guam/Saipan -16.1% and US mainland -48.9%. Travel to Europe was also down -25.7%.
TAIWAN. The spread of SARS in Taiwan has accelerated considerably during the past week. Yesterday, Taiwan announced a cumulative total of 100 probable SARS cases – almost a tripling of cases over the past 10 days. Since the outbreak began, 8 deaths have occurred. Taiwan’s travel retail market is being hit badly. “Sales in Taiwan are a disaster, so are passenger numbers,” warned one leading supplier.
PHILIPPINES. Tourist arrivals in the Philippines dropped -25% year-on-year in April due to worries over SARS, Tourism Secretary Richard Gordon said yesterday. This compares to the -9.9% dip in March. “We’re being affected by SARS,” Gordon told a local television station. “But this was partly compensated by a rise in domestic tourism.” Tourist arrivals totalled 166,2001 in April 2002.
Gordon said that between January and April, tourist arrivals were down around -6% year-on-year. The biggest falls in tourist numbers were from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and China. The Philippines government is targeting an increase in tourist arrivals to over two million this year, after registering a +7.6% increase to 1.93 million in 2002.
Click here to see a continuation of the SARS timeline from the first news of the outbreak on 16 March.
