MIDDLE EAST/INTERNATIONAL. Travel analyst ForwardKeys has revealed that the Israel-Hamas conflict has had a negative impact on flight bookings to and from the Middle East, as well as a negative global effect on travel. Its bookings data shows that air travel has slowed by five percentage points in the three weeks since Hamas’ terror attack on Israel on 7 October.
ForwardKeys’ analysis compared flight bookings (benchmarked against pre-pandemic 2019 levels) during the three weeks before 7 October with the same period after.
In the case of outbound travel, flight bookings from Middle East countries have fallen by nine percentage points since the outbreak of war. From the Americas, they slowed by ten percentage points whilst Asia Pacific, Europe (including Israel) and Africa each slowed by two percentage points.
From a destination perspective, the growth in bookings to all regions of the world has slowed down with the exception of Africa, which has continued to recover towards 2019 levels, ForwardKeys notes.
Meanwhile, flight bookings to the Americas are down six percentage points, Europe by three, Asia Pacific by one and the Middle East by -26.
ForwardKeys observes that within the Middle East region, Israel has been most affected by the conflict, with many airlines having cancelled flights. In the period since 7 October, flight bookings have plummeted by -155 percentage points (a fall in bookings of over 100% indicates that in addition to there being no new bookings, there have also been cancellations, depleting the existing stock of bookings, ForwardKeys noted).
Israel is followed by Saudi Arabia, down -67 percentage points, Jordan down -54, Lebanon down -45 and Egypt down -35. Flight bookings to GCC nations as a whole have declined by -25 percentage points.
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “This war is a catastrophic, heart-breaking, human tragedy that we are all seeing daily on our TV screens. That is bound to put people off travelling to the region, but it has also dented consumer confidence in travelling elsewhere too.”
He added: “As of 6 October, bookings showed that global air travel for the last quarter of 2023 would reach 95% of its 2019 level, but as of 27 October, the outlook has fallen back by seven percentage points and stands at 88%.
“The equivalent change in outlook for the Middle East is much more sobering, falling back 16 percentage points to 110%, from 126%, before the war began.” 
