Ongoing geopolitical tensions are placing growing pressure on the travel retail industry, driving disruptions in passenger flows, regulatory frameworks, currency stability and logistics, according to a new study by Blueprint and Rud Pedersen Group.
The two consultancy firms have joined forces to provide brands, airports and retailers with a strategic approach to building resilience and adapting to today’s volatile environment.
Rud Pedersen Group is a European public affairs consultancy that supports global companies in managing regulatory, political and reputational challenges. With a presence across 19 European countries, it has strong expertise in both the European Parliament and national governments.
Rud Pedersen Group Chief Strategy Officer Jonatan Tylsgaard Larsen said, “Geopolitics is no longer a background variable, it’s a dominant megatrend. This isn’t just about reacting to crises, this is about seeing around corners and getting ready for what may come.
“If the last decade taught us anything, it’s that today’s commercial strategies must factor in megatrends and include political foresight to a greater extent. Political decision-making can fundamentally affect the prosperity of companies and whole industries, which has been further underlined during 2025.”
Blueprint Partner Thomas Kaneko Henningsen added, “At Blueprint we specialise in tracking how megatrends like Gen Z lifestyle, artificial intelligence, social commerce, experiential retail and sustainability are transforming travel retail. We have added geopolitics to this list of megatrends.”
Geopolitics as a defining megatrend
Both companies identify geopolitics as a ‘megatrend’, defined as a “global shift that profoundly shapes business and society for years or even decades”.
Recent events were cited as clear reflections of this shift:
- The biggest threat to the global economy is a full-blown trade war between the USA and China, the two economies account for nearly 45% of world GDP.
- Middle East conflict continues to reroute air corridors and alter consumer flows across Europe and Asia.
- Thirty-two land-border duty-free stores in Canada have seen up to -80% decrease in sales this year, with most stores experiencing -50 to -60% drop in business.
- In the UK, the introduction of duty-free shopping on arrival at airports, international rail and ferry terminals would support economic growth as seen in more than 60 countries worldwide.
- US product boycotts are on the rise in Europe.
- In Germany, Europe’s largest market for electric vehicles, sales of Tesla cars fell -60% between January and April this year, while newly registered electric vehicles increased +53% in April compared with a year earlier. Tesla sales plunged -13% in the first three months of this year, the company’s worst sales in nearly three years.
Travel retail: Navigating multiple megatrends
While geopolitics remains a defining megatrend, other equally critical forces are emerging across the travel retail landscape. These are:
- Consumer behaviour shifts: The global Gen Z lifestyle and affluent travellers from Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East are shaping a new consumption landscape.
- Experiential retail: Increasing demand for immersive, memorable and phygital shopping experiences
- Digital acceleration: AI-powered hyper-personalisation, rise of the metaverse, contactless retail and frictionless payments are redefining customer expectations.
- Social commerce: The hybrid between social media and ecommerce unlocks a new form of global consumerism.
- Green transparency: Carbon reporting, sustainable packaging and traceable sourcing are rising in both regulation and brand equity.
- Wellbeing & health: Post-pandemic priorities continue to influence product choices and travel preferences.
Blueprint Partner Karl Walter said, “The interaction between these megatrends and now geopolitics creates a higher degree of uncertainty and unpredictability. To navigate this constant state of flux, it will require future-proofing the travel retail marketplace using a more multi-dimensional approach.”
Blueprint and Rud Pedersen Group offer the travel retail industry geopolitical content that combines macro-level insights, trend analysis and strategic guidance. ✈
