INTERNATIONAL. Passenger traffic at the world’s airports is projected to reach 6.5 billion in 2022, down by -28.9% on 2019 levels. That’s according to Airports Council International (ACI) World, which today released its latest bulletin on global passenger traffic and the airport business.
The association said that despite persistent challenges, the industry has reached “a potential turning point in the recovery of travel”. ACI stated: “Despite slower than expected recovery and persisting financial challenges, the easing of travel restrictions in key aviation markets brings some renewed optimism and momentum amid the addition of new geopolitical tensions.”
Global passenger traffic in 2021 is estimated at 4.4 billion or less than half of what it was in 2019 (9.2 billion passengers). Domestic traffic continued to drive recovery, reaching close to 3.4 billion passengers, corresponding to 63.4% of 2019 levels.
International passenger traffic volume lagged significantly behind domestic traffic recovery in 2021 and is estimated to have reached only 1.05 billion passengers for the year, or 27.8% of the 2019 level.
For 2022, domestic traffic volume is projected to continue recovering faster than international passenger traffic, reaching a total of 4.46 billion passengers in 2022, or 84% of 2019 volumes. While some improvement is expected, especially in the second half of 2022, international passenger volume is forecast to be only slightly above 2 billion passengers for the year, corresponding to 53.8% of 2019 volume.
The COVID-19 crisis continued to severely affect airport revenues in 2021. It is now estimated that, globally, airports lost more than US$83.1 billion in revenues last year. This figure is expected to reach US$115 billion in 2022, or 72.6% of 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, global passenger traffic is still expected to recover to 2019 levels in early 2024, as previously forecast by ACI. Driven by domestic travel, worldwide passenger levels should reach 91.7% of 2019 levels in 2023 and surpass 2019 levels by around 5% in 2024. International traffic recovery to 2019 numbers will likely only occur in Q4 2024, it noted.
Easing restrictions
ACI noted that the momentum created by plans to reopen travel will have a positive impact on the global economic recovery. But it cautioned that recovery could face “multiple headwinds ranging from new potential variants, high crude oil prices, higher inflation, or supply chain disruptions”. Armed conflict, such as the current situation in Ukraine, and increased geopolitical tensions around the world could also dampen the speed and magnitude of the recovery, ACI added.
“Our thoughts are with the people and our colleagues in aviation impacted by the situation in Ukraine,” said ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira. “As we have seen during the COVID-19 crisis, agility and adaptation is in aviation’s DNA. Airports are trained to handle crises and the priority remains to keep people—travellers and staff—safe. This is the number one priority, always. Like many, we are hoping for a peaceful resolution to this crisis.
“On the global front, it has been almost two years since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. However, we have now reached a potential turning point. The unprecedented global vaccination effort and latest recommendation from the WHO that governments ease travel restrictions could jumpstart the global economic recovery and that of air transport demand.
“Countries are now introducing measures for which ACI has been advocating for months: the implementation of risk- and evidence-based approaches for a safe return of travel. ACI now calls on governments worldwide to ease travel restrictions to restore travel, trade, and tourism. During this transitional phase, the ongoing commitment to the safe resumption of travel is critical, including that of national and international regulators.
“Despite the risks that exist, the industry remains confident that the potential for a recovery to 2019 levels within two or three years is foreseeable.”
