INTERNATIONAL. Global airport passenger traffic in 2022 is forecast to reach 77% of 2019 levels, or 7.1 billion, according to Airports Council International (ACI) World. The airports association said that air travel “should see an uptick in the second half of 2022, moving the industry closer to its recovery”. As reported, ACI predicts that full global recovery will occur in 2024.
Over the first two years of the pandemic, the COVID-19 outbreak reduced the number of passengers at the world’s airports by 10.2 billion. In 2021, volumes were down on pre-pandemic times by over -50%.
ACI World said: “The recent momentum created by the lifting of many health measures and the relaxation of most travel restrictions in many European countries and in the Americas has renewed industry optimism. It however exposed even more the uneven recovery as major aviation markets in Asia Pacific lag behind their Western counterparts as they continue to be in part closed to international traffic.”
By region, a strong full-year performance is anticipated in North America, with ACI forecasting traffic to reach 89% of 2019 volumes. “North America should be the first region to reach full-year recovery to 2019 levels as early as 2023,” said the association.
Africa should reach close to 72% of pre-pandemic passenger traffic levels by year end. ACI said: “Due to its dependence on international traffic, Africa will remain part of the highly impacted regions and is expected to make a full recovery to 2019 levels only in mid- to late 2024.”
Asia Pacific is expected to have the slowest recovery of any region, reaching only 62% of 2019 traffic levels in 2022.
ACI commented: “While some countries in Asia Pacific have reopened to vaccinated travellers, the international passenger market is not expected to see significant improvement before the second half of 2022. Recovery to 2019 levels is expected by the end of 2024 but could slip to 2025 if certain countries lag in lifting the remaining of their COVID-19 restrictions.”
The positive trend in Europe should continue, taking the region to 78% of 2019 levels this year. “ Despite some risks of a slowdown during the fall and winter seasons, Europe’s full-year recovery to 2019 levels is expected in 2024.”
Latin American-Caribbean should see a further uptick in travel with traffic at airports reaching 83% of pre-crisis times by year end. Full recovery is expected in late 2023 or early 2024 region-wide.
Of the Middle East, ACI said: “The region’s high dependence on international travel and connectivity, both of which are recovering much more slowly than domestic travel, will continue to impact its recovery in 2022. The region is expected to reach 67% of 2019 levels by year end and fully recover only in late 2024.”
ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said: “Considering my recent trips and based on the latest data, there is no doubt that many travellers are eager to resume travelling—and the early summer volumes are a testament to it.
“With the combination of ‘vacation deprivation’ and an upsurge in confidence in air travel provided by increased vaccination rates and safety measures, the relaxation of travel restrictions will help boost the propensity for air travel and fuel the industry’s recovery. With many countries taking steps towards the return to a certain normality, lifting almost all the health measures and travel restrictions, we expect a jump in air travel demand in the second half of 2022.”
Uncertainties remain
Even with the current traffic trends, uncertainty still surrounds the recovery of the aviation industry, especially in the medium to long term, ACI noted.
“While many indicators are pointing towards the recovery, the industry is also facing some significant headwinds including geopolitical conflicts, higher inflation, the risk of economic downturn, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages and potential new outbreaks. Despite the downside risks, the industry remains confident that the potential for a recovery to 2019 levels within two or three years is foreseeable.
“While some markets have experienced a robust recovery, on average and under the current projection, accounting for the slower than expected first quarter of 2022 due to the Omicron wave, global passenger traffic is expected to reach back to 2019 levels in late 2023 with the full-year recovery to 2019 levels in 2024.
The recovery will mainly be driven by the recovery of domestic passenger traffic but will be hampered by the “recovery stagnation” in Asia Pacific and a slower recovery in global international travel (globally, domestic traffic accounted for 58% of total passenger traffic in 2019), said the association.
Global domestic passenger traffic is still expected to reach 2019 levels in late 2023 with full-year 2023 traffic at par with 2019 levels. International passenger traffic will require almost one more year to recover and is forecast to reach 2019 levels only by the second half of 2024.
At the country level, markets relying on significant domestic traffic are expected to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels in mid-2023 to late-2023. Markets with significant shares of international traffic are unlikely to return to 2019 levels until 2024, some having even to wait until 2025.
Due to the uneven availability of vaccines, geopolitical conflict and the resulting humanitarian crisis as well as the worsening economic outlook, some country-markets—especially emerging and developing economies—will probably not reach 2019 passenger levels before 2025 or 2026, especially those markets reliant on international traffic, noted ACI.
Note: The Trinity Forum, the world’s most influential airport commercial revenues conference, will take place on 1-2 November in Singapore. The event is co-organised by The Moodie Davitt Report, ACI World and ACI Asia-Pacific. It will be hosted by Changi Airport Group. Registrations open soon.
