INTERNATIONAL. Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) have released a joint Passenger Traffic Report, Trends and Outlook that offers insights into the evolving landscape of air transport.
Among the highlight findings is that global passenger volume fully recovered and surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, reaching 9.5 billion passengers (+4% ahead of 2019). Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) – another key measure of air traffic – are expected to reach 8.8 trillion, or +1% ahead of 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, by 2030 global passenger traffic is forecast to exceed 12 billion, driven by growth in international markets, led by Asia Pacific and Middle East. By 2042, global passenger traffic is projected to reach 19.5 billion, representing a doubling compared to 2024. By 2050, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of +3.6% to reach 244% of 2019 levels, driven by strong growth in emerging markets.
The report also highlighted major changes anticipated among the list of leading markets over time. In 2023, the largest passenger markets were the USA, China, India and Spain, By 2042, emerging markets such as Indonesia and Thailand are expected to enter the top ten. By 2052, the largest markets will include China, the USA, India and Indonesia.
By 2052, domestic routes in China/Mongolia, North America and Southwest Asia, along with long-haul connections between Asia, the Middle East and Europe will dominate the top 20 global routes, reflecting the growing influence of Asia Pacific and Middle Eastern markets in global air travel.
2024 preliminary analysis
In its early 2023 short-term forecast, ICAO predicted that most route groups would return to or exceed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023. While this was largely achieved, the overall recovery remained slightly below expectations, at 94% of 2019 levels, primarily due to underperformance in certain routes, particularly those involving Asia and especially routes to and from China.
With final numbers to be confirmed, ICAO forecasts that global RPK will reach 8.8 trillion (101% of 2019) in 2024, with most routes recovering or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. By 2025, ICAO projects global RPK to rise to 9.4 trillion (108% of 2019), driven by the recovery of these lagging routes, further solidifying the overall market rebound.
Commenting on the medium- to long-term outlook, ACI World and ICAO said: “Despite positive macroeconomic developments, such as easing inflationary pressures, the medium- to long-term outlook has become more cautious due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, persistent labour market bottlenecks and constraints on aircraft deliveries.
“While the gradual recovery of international passengers and the return to profitability for airlines signal positive momentum, travel costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies continues to grow.”
The long-term forecasts from ICAO and ACI World both indicate continued growth in the global aviation industry. While there are differences in the metrics used (RPK vs total passengers) and the methodologies employed, the overall trends align, they noted.
It is projected that by 2044, RPK will reach 224% of the 2024 level (ICAO), while total passenger numbers will be 205% of 2024 levels, effectively doubling the volume of 2024.
In the long term the global passenger market dynamic is expected to shift, transitioning from advanced economies towards emerging and developing economies. As noted above, this dynamic would lead to changes in the composition of the top 20 passenger markets (ACI World) and routes (ICAO), with countries in the Asia Pacific and Middle East region gaining a larger presence.
Upside factors influencing air transport demand
- World economy growth: The baseline IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecast predicts global economic growth at +3.2% in 2024 and +3.2% in 2025. Advanced economies are expected to experience slight growth, increasing from +1.7% in 2023 to +1.8% in 2024 and +1.8% in 2025, while emerging markets will see a slowdown, decreasing from +4.4% in 2023 to +4.2% in 2024 and 2025. Global growth is projected to average +3.1% over the next five years, remaining mediocre compared to the pre-pandemic average.
- Easing inflationary pressure: Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging markets and developing economies (IMF).
- Global trade growth: World merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by +2.6% in 2024 and +3.3% in 2025, following a larger-than-expected decline of -1.2% in 2023.
- Surge in international travel worldwide: According to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to a +2% growth above 2019 levels.
- Stabilisation of jet fuel prices: Jet fuel prices stabilised in 2024. As of 27 September 2024, the global average jet fuel price was US$86.22 per barrel, down -7.9% from the previous month (approximately US$93.60 per barrel) and -23.2% lower than the same period last year (around US$112.30 per barrel).
- Airline industry returning to profitability: In 2024, airline net profits are forecast to rise to US$30.5 billion, with a 3.1% net profit margin and a 6% operating margin, supported by strong demand, improved fleet utilisation and higher load factors.8
Downside risks
- Escalating geopolitical conflict: Geopolitical risks can impact the global economic outlook, affecting growth, inflation, financial markets and supply chains, noted ACI and ICAO. Conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war fuel regional instability, impacting energy and food security and driving inflation. The US-China relationship could also affect sourcing patterns and tariffs, while Asia Pacific governments are securing access to critical minerals.
- Labour market bottlenecks: The global unemployment rate is projected at 4.9% in 2024, slightly lower than in 2023 (5.0%). However, progress in reducing labour ‘underutilisation’ remains slow, with 402 million people unemployed or underemployed, noted the report. These deficits are more pronounced in developing countries and among women.
- Constraints on aircraft deliveries: Aircraft deliveries are expected to reach their highest number since 2018, with a +17% year-on-year increase. However, supply chain issues have led to a reduction in the forecasted deliveries, from 1,777 to 1,583, an -11% decrease. These constraints may impact airlines’ ability to meet growing demand, despite a strong order backlog and market recovery post-COVID. ✈
