INTERNATIONAL. Leading aircraft manufacturer Boeing forecasts a US$3.6 trillion market for new commercial aeroplanes over the next 20 years as world economies rebound and strong demand for new and replacement aircraft spurs growth.
The Boeing 2010 Current Market Outlook (CMO), released this week, foresees a market for 30,900 new commercial passenger and freighter airplanes by 2029.
The report, now in its 46th year of public release, is a comprehensive and respected analysis of the commercial aviation market, and reflects the improving, yet still unstable conditions facing the industry.
“The world market is doing much better than last year, but there are still challenges,” said Boeing Commercial Airplanes Vice President of Marketing Randy Tinseth. “Looking at 2010, we see a world economy that continues to recover. We expect the world economy to grow above the long-term trend this year. As a result, both passenger and cargo travel will grow this year. Airline revenue and yields are up, but fuel prices remain volatile.”
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Passenger traffic is expected to grow at a +5.3% annual rate over the long-term, driven by economic growth from regions with diverse airplane needs. The single-aisle airplane segment will continue to dominate growth worldwide due to the proliferation of low-cost carriers, emerging markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continuing instability of fuel prices, said Boeing.
The single-aisle segment has outpaced long-haul markets over the last decade and will continue to trend upward as older fleets are retired.
The Asia Pacific region shows the most robust market gains, with China leading the way.
“Today about one-third of all airline traffic touches the Asia Pacific region and, as a result of the growth in this market, by 2029 almost 43% of all traffic will be to, from, or within the region,” said Tinseth.
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The airlines of the Asia Pacific region also will be the largest buyer of twin-aisle airplanes – about 40% of the total demand.
The Middle East, which has been one of the fastest growing regions for air travel in recent years, will continue to be another very strong market. The North American and European markets will see substantial demand for replacement airplanes as they retire ageing less-efficient jets.
Boeing predicts that airlines will grow by responding to their passengers’ preference for more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider range of destinations. Air carriers will focus on offering more flights using more efficient planes, rather than on using significantly larger aircraft. As a result, the market for large aircraft (747 and larger) is small at 720 airplanes.
