SOUTH KOREA. Chinese visitor arrivals in South Korea rose +36.4% year-on-year in September, to 434,595. The result continues the sustained recovery from the THAAD-hit 2017 numbers.
The growth rate was down from the +40.9% increase seen in August, according to Korea Tourism Organization (KTO). Chinese visitors represented 34% of all arrivals in September.
However, comparing the latest figures to the same month in 2016 – before the THAAD crisis erupted – highlights the scale of the drop in Chinese tourist numbers. In September 2016 there were 726,266 visitor arrivals from China, itself a +22.8% increase on the year-before period. There has been a -40.2% fall in Chinese tourists between September 2016 and September 2018.
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As reported earlier this week, South Korean duty free sales in the first nine months of 2018 counterintuitively hit an all-time high of US$12.9 billion – while also exceeding total sales for 2017.
The booming but unofficial daigou trade has sustained the growth of Korean duty free despite the drop in visitor numbers. A Chinese government crackdown on returning daigou shoppers after the Golden Week holiday (1-7 October) has raised serious questions about the future of the trade though.
As a counterpoint, Korean travel retailers are hoping that conventional Chinese tourism (group tours and FITs) continues to normalise. A full lifting of the ban on group tours is expected in the near future, which should have a significant impact on Chinese arrivals.
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For the first nine months of 2018, Chinese arrivals were up +9.4% to 3,493,670. Arrivals picked up after a tough first quarter, with Korean-Chinese relations improving as the THAAD dispute eased. There were 6,334,312 Chinese arrivals in the first nine months of 2016, a difference of -44.8%.
South Korean tourism and duty free is not just about the Chinese, however. Japanese arrivals were up +12.7% year-on-year in September to 247,847, representing 19.4% of total arrivals. For the first nine months, Japanese numbers climbed +21.7% to 2,099,560, an 18.8% share.
Outbound Korean departures declined -0.5% in September, to 2,225,756. Growth rates have fallen since July after double-digit increases were recorded during the first half. For the first nine months Korean departures are up +9.8%, to 21,557,018.
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