CHINA. New data from travel analytics firm ForwardKeys shows that Chinese outbound travel will accelerate through Q2 as more airline seats connect travellers from China to the world.
By region, Asia Pacific (APAC) currently holds the largest share (81%) of all seats available from China for the quarter though the overall figure remains well down on pre-pandemic seat capacity.
Of the APAC countries Thailand, South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan are currently the best-connected destinations with China in Q2.
Africa and the Middle East are set to increase the most in Q2, with China seat capacity at 75% of 2019 levels. The market share, however, is small, as only 6% of total international capacity is from China.
The United Arab Emirates is the best-connected destination in its region, with a 44% share; while the number of seats between China and Kenya has doubled since 2019, driven by Kenya Airways. Egypt has also experienced a +10% growth, with both Egypt Air and Sichuan Airlines in China significantly increasing seat numbers.
ForwardKeys notes that these three countries are included in the destination list of current approved group tours from China and have a close relationship with China through the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative.
ForwardKeys China Market Expert Nan Dai said: “Seat capacity recovery to Europe is driven by Chinese airlines, as European airlines are facing a significant hurdle: far longer flights due to the closure of Russian airspace, while Chinese airlines can still use that airspace.”
She added: “Also, some of the European airlines are having challenges with a shortage of staff, strikes and hub airport constraints.”
China seat capacity to the Americas in Q2 is set to recover to only 10% of pre-pandemic seat levels, as many airlines have yet to restore their capacity in the China-US market.
Hub performance
ForwardKeys’ latest data also shows that due to the current absence of direct flights between China and the US, Hong Kong International and Incheon airports are increasing in importance for connecting Chinese traffic.
An analysis of airport hub performance in the China-Europe airline market based on tickets sold for travel in H1 2023 (as of 13 April) reveals that the busiest hubs are Amsterdam Schiphol, Dubai International, Frankurt, Istanbul and Incheon airports. The latter achieved an impressive +375% increase in connecting travellers compared to 2019 levels.
“Most Chinese passengers who use Incheon as a connecting hub are travelling to France and the UK in Europe, as direct capacity from China to these two destinations has decreased by -85% and -58%, respectively,” said Dai. 
ForwardKeys is jointly staging a webinar with Dragon Trail International on 26 April focusing on China travel trends. Registration is free, and webinar attendees will receive an associated report following the presentation. You can register here. ✈
