RUSSIA. ForwardKeys has shared new insights into the progress of recovery of Russian outbound travel. Based on available data, the analyst has forecast that 2019 international passenger number levels may not be reached until 2026.
ForwardKeys has revealed its predicted rate of recovery for the market up to 2031, compared to the base figure of 2019. It forecasts significant growth against pre-pandemic levels from 2027 onwards (see table below).
Assessing the top-performing Asian destinations from Russia in 2021 compared to 2019 (from a limited base), ForwardKeys’ data shows that the clear winner in the region has been the Maldives. Its rise of +168% gave it a 64% share of the total market last year, with many markets closed to visitors.
In 2019, Thailand held the top spot among top Asian destinations for Russian travellers, with a 37% market share. ForwardKeys observed that high level travel restrictions were the primary cause for a fall in Russian arrivals of -96% during 2021. This reduced Thailand’s market share to 11% last year, yet still the country holds second place in the table for 2021.
Sri Lanka posted a notable rise from ninth place to fourth in the table for market share, despite a -77% fall in Russian arrivals. The country held a market share of 4% in 2021, rising from 3% in 2019, according to ForwardKeys’ data.
ForwardKeys attributed this rise in market share to Sri Lanka proactively launching tourism promotion initiatives with Russia last September. It also noted that Sri Lankan Airlines resumed its services to Russia with direct flights last Summer, after a break of six years.
The travel data analyst also compared tickets issued for travel outside Russia to all destinations with a 3% market share or more for January and February 2022 on a like-for-like basis with 2019. The Maldives is again a strong performer showing growth of +142% and the other countries in positive territory are Turkey (+272%) and Sri Lanka (+30%).
Reflecting on the Maldives’ strong performance, ForwardKeys China Market Expert Nan Dai said: “According to Visit Maldives, a client of ForwardKeys, due to the pandemic, they altered their focus to utilise online and digital platforms to maintain the destination presence.
“They partnered with some of the leading Russian tourism-related organisations, operators, travel agents and travel TV channels to spread the knowledge about the Maldives to boost arrivals from Russia.”
