INTERNATIONAL. Global tourism arrivals grew by +4% year-on-year in 2021 to 415 million but remained -72% down on the pre-pandemic year of 2019, according to preliminary estimates by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). 2020 was the worst year on record for tourism, when international arrivals decreased by -73% compared to 2019.
International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021, with arrivals down -62% in both the third and fourth quarters compared to pre-pandemic levels. According to the limited data available, international arrivals in December were -65% below 2019 levels. The full impact of the Omicron variant and surge in COVID-19 cases is yet to be seen, noted UNWTO.
The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer indicates that rising rates of vaccination, combined with easing of travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, helped to release pent-up demand in the second half.
UNWTO said: “The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveller confidence.”
Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19% and +17% respectively), though both were -63% below pre-pandemic levels.
By sub-region, the Caribbean saw the best performance (+63% above 2020, though -37% below 2019), with some destinations coming close to, or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Southern Mediterranean Europe (+57%) and Central America (+54%) also showed a significant rebound but remained -54% and -56% down on 2019 levels respectively. North America (+17%) and Central Eastern Europe (+18%) also climbed above 2020 levels.
Africa posted a +12% increase in arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020, though this was still -74% below 2019. In the Middle East arrivals declined -24% compared to 2020 and -79% over 2019. In Asia and the Pacific arrivals were still -65% below 2020 levels and -94% when compared to pre-pandemic values as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.
Increased tourism spending
The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured in tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at US$1.9 trillion, above the US$1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic value of US$ 3.5 trillion.
Export revenues from international tourism were around US$700 billion in 2021, a small improvement over 2020 due to higher spending per trip, but less than half the US$1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
Average receipts per arrival are estimated to reach US$1,500 in 2021, up from US$1,300 in 2020. UNWTO attributed this to large pent-up savings and longer lengths of stay, as well as higher transport and accommodation prices. France and Belgium reported comparatively smaller declines in tourism expenditure with -37% and -28%, respectively over 2019. Saudi Arabia (-27%) and Qatar (-2%) posted better results in 2021.
Outlook for 2022
According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts, most tourism professionals (61%) see better prospects for 2022. Some 58% expect a rebound in 2022, mostly during the third quarter, while 42% point to a potential rebound only in 2023. A majority of experts (64%) now expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels only in 2024 or later, up from 45% in the September survey.
The UNWTO Confidence Index shows a slight decline for the period January-April 2022. A rapid and more widespread vaccination roll-out, followed by a major lifting of travel restrictions, and more coordination and clearer information on travel protocols, are the main factors identified by experts for the effective recovery of international tourism.
UNWTO scenarios indicate that international tourist arrivals could grow in a range between +30% and +78% compared to 2021. But these would still be -50% to -63% below pre-pandemic levels.
UNWTO said: “The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron variant are set to disrupt the recovery and affect confidence through early 2022 as some countries reintroduce travel bans and restrictions for certain markets. At the same time, the vaccination roll-out remains uneven and many destinations still have their borders completely closed, mostly in Asia and the Pacific.
“A challenging economic environment could put additional pressure on the effective recovery of international tourism, with the surge in oil prices, increase in inflation, potential rise in interest rates, high debt volumes and the continued disruption in supply chains. However, the ongoing tourism recovery in many markets, mostly in Europe and the Americas, coupled with the widespread vaccination rollout and a major coordinated lifting of travel restrictions, could help to restore consumer confidence and accelerate the recovery of international tourism in 2022.”
While international tourism recovers, domestic tourism continues to drive recovery of the sector in an increasing number of destinations, particularly those with large domestic markets, UNWTO noted. According to its panel of experts, domestic tourism and travel close to home, as well as open-air activities, nature-based products and rural tourism are among the major travel trends that will shape tourism in 2022.
