JAPAN. The JTB Foundation (JTBF) has predicted that outbound traffic in 2006 will climb to 17.9 million Japanese – a +3.6% rise from 2005, and an all-time high.
Earlier this year JTBF predicted that 17.3 million Japanese would travel abroad in 2005. The previous record of 17.8 million was set in 2000.
The projection was reported by Travel Journal International (TJI) Online, which said: “Having indicated that overseas travel demand will go up steadily, keeping pace with a strong economic performance thanks to an anticipated GDP growth of +1.9% and current market circumstances, Hiroshi Kurosu, JTBF’s Senior Researcher said that the market environment is changing as an increasing number of consumers are showing more interest in unit prices than volume and the number of outgoing visitors will depend on China and South Korea, both of which have been hard hit by political issues in 2005.”
Kurosu commented: “While some travel agencies urge that collaborative efforts to prompt bilateral traffic among Southeast Asian countries are necessary to increase the outgoing number of Japanese visitors by improving international air networks in the growing Southeast Asian market, the travel industry highly expects to work on developing bilateral traffic demand for the future.”
Regarding higher travel by those in their 50s – considered the major growth engine for the market by TJI – Kurosu pointed out that more than 10 million of these consumers have been, abroad but not in the past five years.
He also cited some common global issues in the travel industry, including fuel surcharges due to hikes in crude oil prices, hotel demand predicament in some destinations such as Hawaii and Hong Kong, the slowing of the global economy and growing concern over the spread of avian flu. All or any of these key issues could affect travel demand, he said.
Domestic and inbound travel set to grow
JTBF gave no specific forecast for domestic travel, but predicted that the sector will grow steadily throughout 2006 if there is no sudden economic downturn or major negative events that threaten the travel market.
TJI continued: “The inbound market for 2006 will be affected by the rebound from 2005 when the World Exposition in Aichi prefecture was held. However, the number of inbound visitors is expected to surge +9% from 2005 to a new record high of 7.3 million from 6.7 million in 2005 (JTBF forecast), thanks to the anticipated measures to make the current visa waiver programme with South Korea permanent, sound growth in Asian economies and increasing efforts to accommodate foreign visitors at destinations.”
The growth outlook expected at major destination countries includes: +13% for China and South Korea, +7% for Europe, +6% for Taiwan, +5% for the US, +4% for Hong Kong and +7% for others.
*Note: The Moodie Report works closely with Travel Journal International Online, which is the pre-eminent provider of information on the Japanese travel industry. To subscribe, please click here.
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