ASIA PACIFIC. Asia Pacific visitor arrivals will next exceed 2019 levels in 2024, according to a new forecast from the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA). However, the predicted figure of 116.21% of pre-pandemic levels for that year comes under its most optimistic scenario, with the forecast under its gloomiest scenario standing at just 71.33% of 2019 levels.
PATA said that given the level of uncertainty and a wide range of factors driving travel industry recovery, it has published forecasts in conjunction with Hong Kong Polytechnic University under a range of three scenarios – mild, moderate and severe pandemic impact.
The latest scenario forecasts for IVAs (International Visitor Arrivals) into 39 Asia Pacific destinations between 2022 and 2024, show generally strong growth rates under the mild scenario. For the medium and severe scenarios, calendar year 2021 is “expected to be the bottom of the arrivals trough”, PATA said, with substantial annual growth rates occurring thereafter to 2024.
The association said this will result in strong increases in absolute numbers of IVAs, however, only under the mild scenario is the volume of international arrivals expected to exceed that of 2019 and then only in 2024. The medium scenario predicts IVAs reaching a similar volume as that of 2019 by 2024, however, the severe scenario suggests a shortfall of almost -30% by 2024.
In absolute terms, the number of international arrivals forecast for 2022 now ranges from almost 315 million under the mild scenario, to 229 million under the medium scenario and 159 million under the severe scenario.
PATA predicts that Asia will return “to a significant level of dominance”, supplying more than 64% of all IVAs into Asia Pacific in 2024, under each of the three scenarios, followed by the Americas and Europe.
The trade body cautioned that while the trends in these latest forecasts are positive, there are still challenges ahead, not the least of which will be containing the spread of the Delta and Omicron variants of COVID-19.
PATA CEO Liz Ortiguera said: “International travel recovery to and within the Asia Pacific region is projected to return moderately over the next three years. Recovery will be uneven into the various sub-regions and destinations and will most likely still remain volatile over the next few years. Some individual destinations may see success but expedited recovery of the region requires a more collaborative approach.
“Ministries across the region have prioritised health and safety protocols for the local community and the incoming visitors, but access to vaccines is still an issue in many destinations. PATA is advocating for more support for vaccine donations and delivery campaigns championed by the WHO Foundation and UNICEF for the COVAX initiative.”
Ortiguera noted that to advance this cause, PATA recently launched a Global Travel Sector Vaccine Coalition in support of WHO Foundation and in collaboration with Virgin Atlantic and Collinson, as reported (and supported by The Moodie Davitt Report).
She concluded: “Destination management and destination marketing are now more critical and complex than ever. This mindset shift to destination management recognises that destination stakeholders are vital partners in travel and tourism. This bodes well for developing a more sustainable travel ecosystem.
“Destination marketing is now multifaceted in terms of the stakeholders involved and key messages to be delivered. Given these needs and challenges, collaboration is key.”
The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts Executive Summary 2022-2024 can be purchased here (it is free to PATA Corporate Members).
