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INTERNATIONAL.International tourism arrivals will grow by between +3% and +4% this year, after numbers topped one billion in 2012, according to forecasts by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
The organisation said 1.035 billion tourists travelled internationally in 2012, representing growth of +4% on the previous year. By region, Asia Pacific (+7%) was the best performer; by sub-region South-East Asia, North Africa (both at +9%) and Central and Eastern Europe (+8%) topped the rankings.
UNWTO’s forecast for 2013 is in line with its long term forecast for 2030 of +3.8% annual growth on average between 2010 and 2020. By region, prospects for 2013 are stronger for Asia and the Pacific (+5% to +6%), followed by Africa (+4% to +6%), the Americas (+3% to +4%), Europe (+2% to +3%) and the Middle East (0% to +5%).
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UNWTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai said: “2012 saw continued economic volatility around the globe, particularly in the Eurozone. Yet international tourism managed to stay on course. The sector has shown its capacity to adjust to the changing market conditions and, although at a slightly more modest rate, is expected to continue expanding in 2013.
“Tourism is thus one of the pillars that should be supported by governments around the world as part of the solution to stimulating economic growth,” he added.
According to the UNWTO, growth was stronger in emerging economies (+4.1%) compared to advanced economies (+3.6%), a trend which it said has marked the sector for many years now.
Growth by region
International tourist arrivals to Europe, the most visited region in the world, were up by +3%, following a strong 2011 (+6%). Total arrivals reached 535 million, 17 million more than in 2011. By sub-region, Central and Eastern Europe destinations (+8%) experienced the best results, followed by Western Europe (+3%). Destinations in Southern Mediterranean Europe (+2%) consolidated their “excellent” performance of 2011 and returned in 2012 to their normal growth rates.
Asia and the Pacific (+7%) was up by 15 million arrivals in 2012, reaching a total 233 million international tourists. South-East Asia (+9%) was the best performing sub-region largely due to the implementation of policies that foster intra-regional cooperation and coordination in tourism. Growth was also strong in North-East Asia (+6%), as Japanese inbound and outbound tourism recovered, while it was comparatively weaker in South Asia (+4%) and in Oceania (+4%).
The Americas (+4%) saw an increase of six million arrivals, reaching 162 million in total. Leading the growth were destinations in Central America (+6%), while South America, up by +4%, showed some slowdown as compared to the double-digit growth of 2010 and 2011. The Caribbean (+4%), on the other hand, is performing above the previous two years, while North America (+3%) consolidated its 2011 growth.
Africa (+6%) recovered well from its setback in 2011 when arrivals declined by -1% due largely to the negative results of North Africa. Arrivals reached a new record (52 million) due to the rebound in North Africa (+9% as compared to a -9% decline in 2011) and to the continued growth of Sub-Saharan destinations (+5%). Results in the Middle East (-5%) improved after a -7% decline in 2011, yet the region recorded an estimated three million international tourist arrivals less in 2012 in spite of the clear recovery in Egypt.
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Tourism receipts
Available data on international tourism receipts and expenditure for 2012 covering at least the first nine months of the year also confirmed the positive trend in arrivals.
Among the top ten tourist destinations, receipts were up significantly in Hong Kong (China) (+16%), the USA (+10%), the UK (+6%) and Germany (+5%). At the same time, a significant number of destinations around the world saw receipts from international tourism increase by +15% or more – Japan (+37%), India and South Africa (both +22%), Sweden and the Republic of Korea (both +19%), Thailand (+18%) and Poland (+16%).
Traditional source markets show renewed dynamism
Although the highest growth rates in expenditure abroad among the ten top markets came from emerging economies – China (+42%) and Russia (+31%) – important traditional source markets, showed particularly good results. In Europe, and despite economic pressures, expenditure on international tourism by Germany held well at +3%, while the UK (+5%) returned to growth after two flat years. In the Americas, both the USA and Canada grew at +7%. On the other hand, France (-7%) and Italy (-2%) registered declines in travel expenditure.
Smaller markets with significant growth were Venezuela (+31%), Poland (+19%), Philippines (+17%), Malaysia (+15%), Saudi Arabia (+14%), Belgium (+13%), Norway and Argentina (both +12%), Switzerland and Indonesia (both +10%).
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