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The ‘Economics for Investment – Currencies’ report is released by the American Express Bank (AEB) and is a monthly feature on The Moodie Report.com. See below to download the full report, including short, sharp analysis of 29 different currencies in East Asia, the subcontinent, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa | |
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INTERNATIONAL. The latest edition of American Express Bank’s (AEB) invaluable “˜Economics for Investment – Currencies’ report predicts a further weakening in the US Dollar to US$1.40 per Euro and Â¥95 to the US Dollar by early 2006.
The projection, which if it transpires has profound implications for the travel retail business, is contained within the report’s usual wide sweep across a band of 30 currencies.
The Dollar is currently trading at just under ¥105, already an attractive mark for Japanese shoppers abroad in, say, DFS Group stores. Such a significant softening in the US currency would provide a further sharp stimulus to Japanese spending abroad.
AEB said that recent data confirms that Japan’s economic upswing has resumed with improvement likely to continue. “The Yen will appreciate, even though the BOJ/MOF will keep reminding markets that intervention is likely should the Yen rally sharply,” it noted.
In other currencies, AEB sticks to its previously-stated view that there will be a revaluation of the Chinese currency “sooner rather than later”. It says the Korean Won’s “big appreciation” (+14% since October) is over, though it will continue to grind stronger.
For the full report, which covers currencies in East Asia, the sub-continent, the America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, click on the icon in the right hand panel.
