JAPAN. A new survey by leading travel group JTB Corp projects that 16.5 million Japanese will travel abroad in 2004, an increase of +23.6% on 2003 levels.
The survey, reported by Travel Journal International Online, notes that 2003 was a soft year for Japanese outbound travel, due to the combined effect of the Iraq war, SARS and global terrorism.
The latest annual forecast – JTB’s 24th since 1981 – is based on travel industry survey results, industry trends and economic indicators.
This year, JTB said that several events will help ignite demand in overseas travel. Among them are the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Athens, Greece, which are expected to lead the way in demand for travel to Europe.
The 28th Summer Olympics, which will run from 13 August to 29 August, are expected to attract several thousands of visitors from Japan, said JTB. It said this major event is likely to spur a higher number of visitors to Europe than in previous years.
The survey said that with Japan’s GDP at 1.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, outbound travel will grow. The biggest increases are predicted for women in their 30s and 40s and middle-aged and senior travellers.
Travel periods that are expected to register strong growth in 2004 include Golden Week (the string of national holidays in late April and early May), and the “Obon season” in the summer.
JTB said that the trend of “slow tourism,” characterized by travellers taking more free time to relax, will grow at the expense of “whirlwind” tours.
It also pointed out that travel choices in 2004 among FITs, veteran travellers and those with diversified tastes will be driven by several factors, including perceived safety, value for money, a strong sense of satisfaction and gaining experiences one can cherish.
Other key trends:
– Hawaii will be a major choice for family travel this year, continuing from a strong market recovery in the second half of 2003. Middle-aged and senior travellers are expected to visit Hawaii to experience nature and Hawaiian culture as promotions are geared to helping visitors rediscover the resort destination’s different islands.
– Major League Baseball (MLB) will continue its popularity in helping spur more interest in travel to the US mainland. The latest addition of Japanese all-star player Kazuo Matsui to the New York Mets is expected to boost the appeal of MLB-based tours. His presence will complement those of Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners, Hideki Matsui of the New York Yankees and Hideo Nomo of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
– Hiking and trekking by middle-aged and senior travellers will boom, especially for destinations focusing on nature, such as Switzerland, New Zealand, China and Nepal (Kathmandu).
– Travel to China, thanks to the visa-free programme introduced last September, and Vietnam are likely to increase among Asian destinations (barring a major recurrence of SARS).
– Global business travel is expected to recover in 2004 as Japan’s business climate improves.
However, concerns over the recurrence of SARS in China and Asia and global terrorism could undermine the confidence of travellers from Japan, said JTB. In summary, the outlook is currently healthy but traveller confidence remains fragile and an unexpected turn in events (SARS, terrorism) could reverse growth quickly and steeply.
