INTERNATIONAL. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) this week released passenger traffic forecasts projecting that in 2011 the air transport industry will handle 2.75 billion passengers (620 million more passengers than in 2006).
International passenger demand is expected to rise from 760 million passengers in 2006 to 980 million in 2011 at an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of +5.1%. This will be lower than the +7.4% AAGR recorded during 2002-2006, largely due to slightly slower global economic growth.
Domestic passenger demand is expected to grow from 1.37 billion passengers in 2006 to 1.77 billion in 2011, an AAGR of +5.3%, fuelled by expansion in the Indian and Chinese domestic markets.
“The numbers clearly show that the world wants to fly. And it also needs to fly,” said IATA Director General and CEO Giovanni Bisignani. “Air transport is critical to the fabric of the global economy, playing a critical role in wealth generation and poverty reduction. The livelihoods of 32 million people are tied to aviation, accounting for US$3.5 trillion in economic activity.”
Parts of the world are effectively managing infrastructure development to anticipate and meet demand – particularly the Middle East and China. But the enormous anticipated expansion in India that has fuelled record aircraft orders could be cut short by insufficient airport and air traffic management capacity, he said.
“The unprecedented delays nightmare in the US is a clear example of the paralysis that results when we miss the mark on effective planning. This is mirrored in Europe where governments still have not cleaned up the mess in air traffic management with an effective Single European Sky. In total, infrastructure inefficiency – from bottlenecks to inefficient processes – adds +12% to our fuel bill and costs the environment 73 million tonnes of unnecessary CO2 emissions each year.”
ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL PROSPECTS
Middle East: The strongest international passenger demand growth is forecast for the Middle East where an AAGR of +6.8% will be driven by GDP expansion along with significant new routes and capacity. Within the region, UAE (+8.4%) will show the strongest growth. Total international passenger numbers are forecast to be around 105 million in 2011, an increase of 30 million over 2006 levels.
Asia: Strong growth in Asia Pacific (+5.9% AAGR) will be driven by strong economic growth in the major developing economies in the region. China (+8.8% AAGR), India (+8.6%) and Vietnam (+7.7%) will lead the region. Total international passenger numbers will rise by 87 million by 2011.
Africa: Above average demand growth in Africa (+5.6%) reflects stronger economic ties between the region and markets in the Middle East and Asia. Total international passenger numbers will rise by 18 million by 2011.
Europe: European international passenger demand is expected to increase with an AAGR of +5.0% over the period translating into 150 million more international passengers by 2011. While the growth rate is slower than the global average, Eastern Europe will see a more rapid average annual expansion with Latvia (+12.1%), Poland (+9.2%), Ukraine (+8.8%), Serbia (+7.6%) and Romania (+7.3%) being the top growth markets.
Latin America: Relatively low growth in Latin America (+4.4% AAGR) reflects slower demand growth in key North American markets and within the region. International passenger totals will rise from 96 million in 2006 to 119 million in 2011.
North America: North America is expected to be the slowest growing region at +4.2%, reflecting the mature nature of markets in the region and an expected slowdown in US economic growth. International passenger traffic will increase by 41 million by 2011.
MORE STORIES ON IATA
IATA reports +8.6% surge in international passenger traffic for August – 02/10/07
‘Liberalisation is our Everest challenge’: IATA outlines airline industry priorities – 08/06/07
Middle East passenger numbers flourish as IATA paints rosy airline picture for early 2007 – 31/05/07
IATA global airline passenger traffic posts strongest monthly rise in over a year – 01/05/07
