MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA. Travel analytics company ForwardKeys has said that international travel & tourism arrivals may return to normal in 2023, with bookings to the Middle East up by +15% on 2019 levels in the first quarter. The data is based on tickets booked in advance for the period.
In Q4 2022, international arrivals to the Middle East are +4% ahead of Q4 2019, compared to the global average of -30%.
Juan Gomez, Head of Market Intelligence at ForwardKeys, said: “The Middle East is the only region to show growth into 2023, but Africa and America are not too far behind. Overall, the outlook for 2023 looks promising, despite high inflation in key source markets and the looming recession. Tickets are still being booked and economy class travel continues closing the gap with premium cabins.”
Among premium cabin travellers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia shows the greatest growth (see chart above), but Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon are also ahead of the average.
Latest data on Africa
ForwardKeys VP Business Development Gordon Clark reported on the latest trends in key African markets at the recent Middle East & Africa Duty Free Association (MEADFA) Conference (our day-by-day coverage appears here).
In Q4 2022, international arrivals to Africa are -19% versus comparable 2019 levels, against a global average of -30%. The 2023 outlook is promising, with bookings 11% behind international arrivals in 2019.
Travel recovery and growth are being led by West and Central Africa, at -6% and +10% for Q4 travel compared to 2019 levels. At country level, the best performer in Q4 2022 is Cape Verde, +10% against 2019 followed by Ivory Coast (-3%) and Ghana (-9%).
“West and Central Africa benefit from VFR travel from Europe and North America, our data shows growing interest from Portugal and Spain for Cape Verde, while the improved seat capacity from the US to Ghana is attracting more premium travel,” said Clark. “Southern Africa has been recovering slower due to the impact of Omicron early in the year,” he added.
Looking ahead to Q1 2023, Central and West Africa will continue to drive the recovery, said ForwardKeys. East Africa will come close to 2019 levels due to strong demand from leisure travellers from Western Europe. Recovery is slowly spreading across the regions of Africa and flight connectivity plays a pivotal role.
“Seamless connectivity is vital for encouraging travellers to visit Africa,” noted Clark.
Currently, the top global airports for connecting passengers to West Africa are Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol. Istanbul Airport is also taking greater share as Turkish Airlines builds capacity to West Africa.
