Airports Council International (ACI) World has predicted global passenger traffic to reach 9.7 billion by the end of the year, exceeding the pre-pandemic 2019 record for the first time.
According to the annual World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) 2023-2052 dataset released today by ACI, international passenger traffic is estimated to hit the 4 billion mark by 2024, with domestic passenger traffic reaching 5.7 billion.
In its report, ACI predicts passenger numbers to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +4.3% from 2023 to 2042 and +3.6% from 2042 to 2052.
From 2024 to 2042, global passenger traffic is projected to approximately double, while the numbers are seen to grow by 2.5 times in 2052.
The annual WATF 2023-2052 dataset features the top 20 markets for air travel demand among other key air traffic findings.
Looking ahead, ACI is expecting international passenger traffic to reach 8.7 billion in 2042, and domestic passenger traffic to hit 10.6 billion.
In the long term, the association also predicts a shift in the global passenger market trends, transitioning from advanced economies towards emerging and developing economies.
Over the next two decades, advanced economies are projected to achieve a CAGR of 3.2% for total passenger traffic, while emerging and developing economies are expected to have a higher CAGR of 5.4%.
ACI noted that large population bases and rapid income growth in emerging markets will mainly drive air travel demand.
ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said: “The projections indicate that global passenger traffic is set to reach 9.7 billion by the end of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and suggest a doubling by 2042 and a 2.5-fold increase by 2052.
“In the long term, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to transition from advanced economies towards emerging and developing ones as they experience significant urbanisation and population increases, often combined with rapid economic growth favourably impacting their disposable income and willingness to travel.
“Investing responsibly in current and new infrastructure remains key to ensuring that we can sustainably meet capacity growth to maximise the social and economic benefits of aviation.”
Along with the WATF, ACI World has issued its first bi-annual air travel demand update of 2024, ‘ACI World Advisory Bulletin: The most trusted source for air travel demand updates’. ✈
