International passenger traffic at Asia Pacific airports continues to surge, according to the latest data from Air4Casts*.
The travel retail analyst has reported a +8.4% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers in March, based on figures from more than 60% of the region’s airports.
That growth was expected to continue in April, with South Korea’s Jeju International performing particularly strongly. The airport posted an almost +20% year-on-year increase in international traffic during the month. Air4Casts is also predicting a +10.9% overall increase in May in the region.
The rate of Chinese travel is particularly significant, the analyst noted. In June, it expects outbound Chinese nationals to grow at an even faster rate, by almost +12% compared to the same month in 2015.
Four of the top five outbound growth rates in June will come from ‘second tier’ Chinese airports, as illustrated in the following chart. The biggest increase though is forecast for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, which is now classified as ‘first tier’ and is set to increase its year-on-year flow of outbound Chinese traffic by almost +41% next month.
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Second tier airports’ share of overall outbound traffic will only increase marginally in June, however (from 39.3% to 40.8%) and the mix varies on different routes. There will be no significant change on routes to South Korea or the US, but Japan will see a three percentage point shift. In Thailand it should be no more than five points, although Air4Casts noted that the majority of trips taken are already from second tier airports.
In travel retail, passengers from second tier airports are generally considered to have lower average propensities to spend than those from first tier airports, but Air4Casts says this assumption may not be supported by the facts.
“Over 170 cities in China have population counts in excess of 4 million but only Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are regarded as first tier,” the analyst noted. “The second tier is an opportunity. According to the US Department of Commerce, fourteen of these cities now account for over 50% of all imports from the US.”
The top five airports in terms of rate of increase in mainland Chinese travellers in June will be in South Korea, Japan and Thailand, Air4Casts noted. But it said there were also “excellent prospects” elsewhere, as shown in the chart below.
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*NOTE: The Moodie Report works closely with Air4Casts in an informal alliance. For details of Air4Casts work visit www.Air4Casts.com
