Brazilian Real, Australian/Canadian dollars are main upwards currencies in 2003 as Swiss Franc falls

INTERNATIONAL. The Moodie Report’s exclusive monthly and year-to-date analysis of the world’s top currencies shows that the strongest-gaining currency in 2003 is the Brazilian Real (+18.9% on average against the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator basket of 13 currencies).

The Australian dollar (+9.7% on average) and the Canadian dollar (+9.2% have been the other prime upward movers – good news for travelling nationals from those countries, bad news for visitors.

So far this year the Brazilian Real has gained +22.7% on the US dollar, an important consideration for, say, retailing at Miami airport, a strong Latin gateway. The Canadian dollar has gained +13.0% on the US dollar, which has big repercussions for the Canada/US border trade, in particular.

Year-to-date, the Australian dollar has strengthened +11.8% on the Korean Won and +12.3% on the Japanese Yen, not what hard-pressed Australian travel retailers want to see in terms of the important, and suffering, Asian trade.

The biggest losing currency so far this year is the Swiss Franc, which has dropped -6.6% on average against the currencies in the basket. The Swiss Franc has lost -13.7% to the Australian dollar and -13.3% to the Canadian dollar, for instance. The Pound Sterling has given up -6.2% on average and the US dollar stands at a -4.4% decline including a drop to the Canadian dollar of -11.5%. Despite a strengthening in August (see below), the Japanese Yen is still down -3.4% for the year. The Korean Won shows a decline of -3.1%.

Year-to-date the US dollar is down -1.0% to the Japanese Yen and -3.6% to the Euro. For August alone, the Japanese Yen gained +3.3% on average against the currencies in the basket. The Indian Rupee (a key reference for retailers in the Middle East) advanced +1.4% against the basket; the Brazilian Real strengthened to the tune of +1.1%; the Canadian dollar was up +0.8% and the Chinese Renminbi and the US dollar both saw gains of +0.6%. The Russian Rouble added to its value by +0.3%. The Swiss Franc (-3.5%) and the Euro (-3.3%) were the big losers in August. The Pound Sterling weakened -1.7% on average and the Australian dollar lost -1.1% of its value. The Korean Won fell modestly by -0.3%.

Note: Next week on The Moodie we will present a detailed Excel Workbook giving readers access to currency cross rates for 29 August 2003 and evolution data over various periods.

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