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INTERNATIONAL. August passenger figures released to date include a flat market compared with the same month last year, according to aviation analyst Air4casts*.
So far 212 airports have declared their August results, though the results are skewed by the fact that they are mostly European airports. Cumulatively the 212 locations represent around a third of world traffic.
Air4casts noted: “They reveal a zero percentage pax increase on last year. The comparison indicator is a latest August forecast of +2.4% for those specific airports.”
It cautioned that the better-performing airports tend to declare earlier in the month, noting “as the week count rises, the numbers fade”.
Air4casts continued: “The question about the timing of a possible demand upturn is very premature, though it is far from an uncommon one especially from the travel retail community. A question with equal difficulty factor is when the downward slope in demand will start to level off. The latest data gives no help whatever in this latter regard.
“A key indicator each month is the comparison of the actuals for that month with the most recent forecast [in this case flat versus +2.4% for the month].”
“UNHAPPY READING” FOR FOURTH-QUARTER FORECAST”
The latest forecast for the fourth quarter of 2008 makes for “unhappy reading”, Air4casts said.
Its expectation had been for a total traffic increase of no more than +0.7% but with a slightly better outlook for international passenger traffic, which might have risen by some +2.8%.
The 2009 outlook, and that is before the latest August data is factored in, envisages an international traffic increase of +3.5% in Europe but just +1.5% in Asia Pacific and +2.4% in the US.
Air4casts said: “The reality is that demand is still weakening as economies around the world stumble. While there is no practical and predictive relationship between quarterly changes in GDP and air passenger numbers, it is true that the continued expectation of economic well-being is an essential pre-requisite for discretionary consumer spending, which is what air travel is.”
2009 FORECAST GROWTH SLIPS
Air4casts said that the northern autumn will see further sharp reductions in traveller numbers which will drive down the 2009 forecast even further.
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Middle East to stay strong but Asia Pacific to soften is an early 2009 projection from Air4Casts |
The July-based projections envisage a +2% growth in total passengers for the year as a whole and +3.2% for international travellers. “Forecast to forecast the total line has slipped by almost a full percentage point but on the international line the slippage is only a third of a point,” Air4casts noted.
“A three percentage point growth rate is uncomfortable for dependent sectors like travel retail but it is not catastrophic. Further reductions in international demand are now certain, with the lowest band for 2009 coming in at zero growth for the year.”
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