INTERNATIONAL. Travel analytics company ForwardKeys’ latest data underlines the extent of the collapse in air travel worldwide.
Analysis of year-to-date flight bookings shows that they are -86.8% down compared to the first 15 weeks of 2019. Bookings from Asia Pacific are down by more than -100%, which means that in the period, new bookings were outweighed by cancellations. Bookings from Europe were down by -84.7%, from the Americas were down by -75.9% and from Africa & the Middle East were down by -71.4%. Throughout March, there were effectively no new bookings, as well as a wave of cancellations – and that pattern has continued into the first two weeks of April, said the analyst.
In the period to 19 April, air travel fell to exactly half of what it was in the equivalent period a year ago. The cancellation rate peaked in mid-March and global aviation seat capacity has fallen from over 40 million seats in operation to less than -10% of that number today in the period.
The year-to-date drop-off in flight arrivals has been most severe in the Asia Pacific region, down -56.1% on the equivalent period in 2019. Europe is next, with arrivals down -50.2%. Travel to Africa & the Middle East is down -42.6%; and travel to the Americas is down -39.8%. ForwardKeys noted: “With over 90% of all flights currently grounded, the year-to-date trend is set to deteriorate substantially in the near term.”
ForwardKeys has also undertaken an analysis of flight searches done in several countries during March, when most of the population has been in quarantine. It reveals that they are still researching foreign travel and, it said, that they have a strong interest in long haul travel in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Countries researched include France, Italy, Japan, Spain and South Korea.
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “While we are currently looking at a catastrophic contraction of the aviation market, with a tiny proportion of flights still in the air, carrying cargo, repatriations and essential travel, there are some noteworthy patterns in the data to bear in mind.
“First, the peak for summer holiday bookings is in May, so if the lockdown can end soon, there may yet be a chance to rescue the summer season, at least partially. Second, flight search data strongly suggests that consumers aspire to travel; so, once the restrictions are lifted, the market will eventually come back.”
