INTERNATIONAL. Airports Council International (ACI) World today issued its latest economic analysis on the impact of COVID-19, saying that international passenger traffic may not hit 2019 levels until 2024, though domestic markets could rebound a year earlier.
The latest ACI bulletin, titled ‘The impact of COVID-19 on the airport business’, said: “Before the beginning of summer 2020, most experts in the field of aviation agreed that passenger traffic volumes would not reach 2019 levels before 2023. However, as the industry remains on the ground for much longer than anticipated in the first months of the crisis coupled with ongoing quarantine measures, current projections on international market segments signal that passenger volumes will likely not return to 2019 levels until 2024. Markets that have significant domestic traffic, on the other hand, are expected to recover in 2023 back to pre-COVID-19 levels.”
In 2020, passenger traffic is expected to fall by -58.4% year-on-year, or a reduction of 5.6 billion. This also a decline of -59.6% on the baseline forecast for 2020 as shown in the table above.
ACI World also forecast a -60% reduction in revenues compared to the projected baseline (the pre-COVID-19 forecast for 2020). Airport revenues declined by US$10.3 billion and US$39.5 billion in Q1 and Q2 2020, respectively, compared to the projected baseline. The revenue shortfall is expected to reach US$33.4 billion and US$21.1 billion in Q3 and Q4 2020, respectively, meaning a US$104.5 billion reduction in revenue for 2020 overall.
ACI also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding recovery. It predicted that, by December, monthly traffic is most likely to hit 56% of pre-crisis forecasts, but said this could still range between 27% and 60%.
“Airports are key drivers of economic development but, without any support from governments and with US$104 billion in losses because of the devastating impact of the pandemic on aviation, it is now the time to come together to support recovery,” ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said. “Aviation will be central to the global economic recovery, delivering connectivity, trade, tourism, jobs, prosperity and growth.
“As air transport has always been an industry based on the interdependence of all its parts, the COVID-19 crisis devastated all stakeholders—from aircraft manufacturers and travel agents to retailers in airports—and resulted in job losses, business shutdowns, bankruptcies, and other instances of economic devastation.
“Beyond the immediate and apparent damages, the global economy has been hit hard by the loss of the benefits arising from air transportation activity. Indeed, according to the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), as of 2018, aviation supports 65.5 million jobs worldwide and enables US$2.7 trillion in global GDP.
“The recovery of air travel is crucial in the wider global economic recovery but, to succeed, it will need passengers to have confidence in the industry’s focus on their health and welfare.”
ACI World has also called on governments to follow a robust and consistent protocol for testing which should be implemented only when necessary and as an alternative to broad-brush requirements for quarantine.
“Unnecessary quarantine measures are harmful to passenger confidence so harmonised measures and a risk-based approach that relies on scientific evidences will help to restore the traveller confidence and support the economy recovery of the aviation ecosystem,” de Oliveira said.
