MOODIE INDICES. The fortunes of the global travel retail market have been closely mirrored in and tracked by the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator since its base date of 31 December 2001.
Created by Yngve Bia, founder and owner of Generation DataBank, a partner in The Moodie Report , the Moodie 100 monitors the performance of 100 different components, all with a relation to the travel retail trade. The majority of these are company share prices, ranging from those of manufacturers (Bvlgari, Allied Domecq, BAT, LVMH, Swatch Group) to airlines, ferry companies, tour and travel operators, aircraft manufacturers and some big domestic retailers whose results are heavily influenced by tourist-related business.
Added to these are a group of “˜sentiment indicators’ (for example Fed Reserve in the US) and “˜market indicators’ (stock exchanges). The Moodie 100 tracks the individual and collective moments each month, which are analysed on The Moodie Report.com and in our weekly pdf report.
In May the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator lost a further 1.7 points (-1.4%) to be added to the 4.8 points lost in April. The M100 closed May at 116.6 following two months of continuous descent.
All the five main indices, with the exception of M21 Travel Index (+0.6%), ended May on the negative side. The M21 Market Index dropped -2.8% following significant declines on the stock markets, especially in Europe (-5.5%). Declines were also recorded for the M21 Retailer Index (-0.7%), the M21 Sentiment Index (-0.5%) and the M21 Supplier Index (-0.1%). The M21 Travel Index advanced +0.6%.
Nine of M100CI’s 21 sector indices ended higher, led by Air Travel (+4.7%), Conferences (+0.9%) and Confectionery (+0.9%). Eleven sector indices declined with Airlines tumbling at a rate of at -9.2%, Europe falling -5.5% and Tobacco giving up -4.2%. The Sea Travel sector index was left unchanged.
31 out of the 100 components making up the M100CI closed May in positive territory. The overall winner was EADS, which saw its stock price gain +15.7%. The main faller was KLM with a decline of -19.0% in its stock price.
For a detailed update on the performances of the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator, its Sub-indices, Sectors and Components, see Update and the Excel files showing:
– Indices Summary
– Sectors – Monthly Review
– Components – Monthly Review
– Weighting.
Data featured include Closing Values and Prices as well as Evolution (Percentage Change) over the past four weeks, year-to-date as well as since 1 January 2002 (= base date for the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator). For an explanation of the composition, technical structure and methodology used in compiling the Moodie 100 Confidence Indicator, see About.
