US. The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) projects international travel to the US to regain its footing by 2010, following its first forecasted year of decline since 2003 for 2009 (-8%).
“Reflective of the current global economic environment”, international travel is forecasted to decline by -8% in 2009, the OTTI (part of the Department of Commerce) said.
However it projects a rebound of +3% growth by the end of 2010, followed by +5% annual increases through 2013.
Underlining the extent of the challenge facing the tourism and travel sectors, this year 24 of the top 25 arrival markets are set to decline. The largest decreases will be from Ireland (-13%), Spain (-12%), and Mexico (-11%). The UK, France and Italy are each expected to post -10% declines year-on-year.
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These decreases follow (and are accentuated by) a record year for the US in 2008, when it hosted 58 million international visitors. In the long term, the forecast estimates an increase of +10% between 2008 and 2013 to reach a record 64 million international travellers.
The US travel forecast was prepared by the Department of Commerce in conjunction with Global Insight. Forecasts are derived from GII’s econometric travel forecasting model and are based on key economic and demographic variables as well as DOC consultation on non-economic travel factors.
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FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS BY REGION
North America – The top two markets generating visitors to the US, Canada and Mexico, are forecasted to decline by -6% and -11%, respectively, in 2009, and to grow by +14% and +6% from 2008 to 2013. By 2011, both Canada and Mexico are forecast to set new records for arrivals to the US.
Europe : – Visitors from Europe are expected to decrease by -9% in 2009, the largest decline among the world regions.
It will take the entire forecast period to regain this loss by 2013, the OTTI predicted. The UK is projected to post a -10% decline in 2009, matched by France and Italy. Germany’s contraction is set to hit -6%. The UK and Germany are the only top European markets forecasted to recover by 2013.
Asia Pacific – Although Asian visitation is projected to decline by -5% in 2009, the forecast estimates a +21% growth rate by 2013 from 2008. Japan, so critical to the travel retail channel, particularly on the West Coast and in Hawaii, continues to be the largest Asian market and second-largest overseas market despite an estimated -5% decline in 2009.
The longer-term forecast shows that by 2013, the US will host 3.6 million Japanese visitors, up +10% from 2008. Substantial long-term double-digit growth is forecasted for the other key markets from Asia Pacific by 2013 compared to 2008: China is projected to increase by a startling +61%; India by +43%; South Korea by +22%; and Australia by +17%.
South America – South America is projected to contract by -4% in 2009, but then leads the growth in arrivals among all regions for the next several years. By 2013, South America will generate over 3.1 million visitors, a +23% increase compared to 2008, the second-fastest growth rate among all of the world regions.
The largest source market from within the region, Brazil, is expected to be down -8% in 2009, but to recover with a strong +21% increase by 2013 over 2008. This will put Brazil as the seventh top international market, displacing Italy by 2013. A strong rebound is projected for both Venezuela (up +17%) and Colombia (up +26%) to support the long-term forecast for the South American region for 2013 over 2008.
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MORE STORIES ON THE US TOURISM SECTOR
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