INTERNATIONAL. Almost three-quarters of international departures by nationalities associated with strong premium whisky demand take place outside the world’s ten largest Scotch export markets, according to new analysis from aviation data specialist Air4casts.
The finding points to potentially under-exploited opportunities for whisky brands and travel retailers at airports that may not feature prominently in conventional Scotch market planning.
Air4casts highlights an intriguing collection of passenger flows: Americans and South Koreans departing Manila; Koreans travelling from Fukuoka and Da Nang; Chinese passengers leaving Jeju and Macau; and Taiwanese travellers departing Okinawa.
These contrast with established international whisky showcases such as London Heathrow Terminal 5, Singapore Changi, Dubai International, Taipei Taoyuan and Frankfurt.
Air4casts combined its Nationalities 1000 passenger forecasts with its mapping of airside alcohol concessions across 847 terminals worldwide. It focused on seven nationalities with strong premium whisky credentials: American, Chinese, South Korean, Taiwanese, Japanese, Turkish and Indian.
Together, those nationalities are forecast to account for 286 million international departures in 2026 after passengers departing their home countries are excluded. Some 72% of those journeys begin at terminals in countries outside the ten largest Scotch export markets.
The proportion approaches four in five among American, Chinese, Taiwanese and Turkish travellers, while around three-quarters of South Korean departures also originate outside the leading Scotch markets, according to Air4casts.
Premium Scotch hotspots
Seoul Incheon Terminal 2 represents the largest concentration identified by Air4casts, with a forecast 5.08 million departures by the selected nationalities in 2026, +78% compared with 2024. Chinese passenger numbers have more than doubled over the period.
Ho Chi Minh City Terminal 2 follows with 4.58 million departures, ahead of Manila Terminal 3 with 3.85 million and Manila Terminal 1 with 3.67 million.
The Manila flows illustrate the value of nationality-level data: South Koreans account for 56% of the identified audience at Terminal 3, while Americans represent 64% at Terminal 1.
Fukuoka International, with 3.02 million relevant departures, and Da Nang Terminal 2, with 2.67 million, complete the leading six. South Koreans account for 62% and 75% of those respective passenger groups.
Air4casts also identifies fast-growing smaller locations. Seoul Gimpo International is forecast to reach 1.27 million relevant departures in 2026, up +97% versus 2024. Okinawa Naha International rises +49% to 1.71 million, Jeju +47% to 1.43 million and Manila Terminal 4 +42% to 1.75 million.
The passenger concentrations are striking: Taiwanese travellers account for 80% of the identified group at Okinawa, while Chinese travellers represent 78% at Jeju.
Who reaches these travellers?
Air4casts overlaid its nationality data with airside alcohol concessions to examine retailer access to these passenger flows.
Avolta has the broadest footprint, reaching them across 244 terminals. Lotte Duty Free and King Power International achieve the highest reach per terminal among the operators analysed, across 14 and six terminals respectively.
Air4casts Marketing Director Emma Robinson said: “Brands know where the whisky shoppers are supposed to be, and those terminals are already well served. The question we get asked is where the next ones are.
“When you put passenger nationality next to who holds the alcohol concession, airports that rarely appear in a whisky plan start looking like obvious places to test a travel exclusive or a premium gift pack.”
The findings come amid strong momentum for whisky in global travel retail. According to IWSR figures cited by Air4casts, Scotch volumes and value both increased +10% in the channel in 2025, while whisky overall recorded +12% value growth.
Super-premium spirits volumes rose +10% in travel retail, contrasting with a -15% decline in super-premium-plus value across the 21 leading domestic markets.
IWSR estimates Scotch will add more than US$400 million in travel retail sales value by 2030, the largest incremental gain of any spirits category.
Air4casts cautions that the findings represent a demand signal rather than an observed whisky purchase rate. It recommends brands and retailers test the passenger mix against premium whisky transactions, spend per buyer, range depth and destination allowances before committing investment to a terminal. ✈
