Introduction: Airports Council International (ACI) World has released the Airport Traffic Forecasts 2023-2052, shedding light on air traffic trajectory over the next three decades. In this article ACI World Data Scientist, Economics Hyuntae Jung and Senior Director Airport Economics, Statistics & Forecast Diederik Meijerink highlight key findings from the report.
The annual publication predicts that global passenger traffic in 2024 will surpass 2019 levels by +6%, with an estimated 9.7 billion passengers passing through the world’s airports this year.
Year-to-date figures for October 2023 revealed a robust recovery trend with total passenger traffic up by +28% compared to 2022.
International travel has witnessed a resurgence, indicating pent-up demand for cross-border journeys.
The report states that global passenger traffic is set to double over the next 20 years, by which time China will have replaced the US as the world’s biggest aviation market.
However, according to Jung and Meijerink, the pace of growth is expected to stabilise in the coming years – influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, gross domestic product fluctuations and geopolitical tensions.
The ACI World projections suggest a steady growth trajectory for global passenger traffic, with a compound annual growth rate of +4.3% expected between 2023 and 2042.
While initial post-pandemic years may see accelerated growth, rates are expected to normalise by 2052.
The top 20 markets by total passenger traffic forecast depict a shifting landscape, in terms of both domestic and international passenger traffic.
While the US has traditionally held the top spot, China is projected to surpass it by 2042 in terms of international passenger traffic. By 2052, China is expected to maintain its dominance in both domestic and international air travel.
Emerging economies such as Indonesia, Türkiye and Thailand are poised for growth, reflecting growing importance in the global aviation market.
These shifts underscore the evolving dynamics of air travel and the increasing interconnectedness of economies worldwide.
Airports are prioritising passenger safety, environmental sustainability, community engagement and employee wellbeing as integral components of their operations.
Jung and Meijerink commented: “Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and geopolitical uncertainties, the future of air travel shines bright, offering ample opportunities for growth and innovation.
“As we navigate the skies ahead, let us remain steadfast in our commitment to a safe, sustainable and thriving aviation sector.” ✈
All graphs and tables courtesy of ACI World
