INTERNATIONAL. A downward trend in passenger travel on international markets could be developing, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Although a +3.2% year-on-year increase was recorded in November, the figure represents a slowdown on the +5.1% growth seen in October.
Both economy and premium travel weakened during November compared to the previous month, but IATA said there had been a “notable deceleration” in first and business class. Economy class travel was up +3.4% year-on-year, while premium travel was just +0.7% higher.
A major cause for concern is further slowdown in the Chinese economy, which IATA said could be eroding demand for business-related air travel.
The organisation said the overall weakness in air travel in November was mostly a result of the weaker performance of the Europe-Far East market, which fell -2.3% year-on-year. However, it noted that temporary factors such as strikes at Lufthansa also played a part in the slowdown in growth of this market.
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The weakness in Asia could also be causing the broader decline in international passenger numbers over the past few months, IATA said. It might be a potential cause of declining growth in the Within Europe travel market, which had supported an expansion in passenger numbers in previous months. Passenger travel in this market was up just +0.3% year-on-year in November, with the same result in both travel classes.
“The outlook for international passenger growth remains mixed because growth during the recent past has been narrowly based and supported by the Within Europe and North Atlantic markets,” said IATA. “Weakness in other regions, like Asia, has become more of a concern with the November data showing signs of a downtrend developing.”
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Recent improvements in the North Atlantic market were sustained in November, with total international passenger numbers up +5.7% year-on-year. “Although it is not clear if the US economy has recovered adequately from the recession to tolerate an increase in interest rates, indicators continue to suggest that improvements are on track, which bodes well for air travel demand,” IATA said.
“And while economic conditions in the Eurozone remain fragile, growth has been positive and steady for several months now. Better performance of Eurozone economies has helped support business-related air travel across the North Atlantic.”
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