INTERNATIONAL. Travel retail consultancy Blueprint has issued a white paper titled ‘Inconvenient Predictions’ based on how six global megatrends are set to transform travel retail the coming years.
Developed over the past 18 months, it examines how travel and commercial experiences are evolving and how airports, retailers and brands can remain relevant in a changing world.
“The risk facing travel retail is the attachment to yesterday’s success model,” said Blueprint Partner Thomas Kaneko Henningsen. “The current model deserves credit for being highly resilient. But I truly believe that the industry’s biggest commercial opportunity the coming years is to stay relevant and that will require transformation.”
He added, “Inconvenient Predictions addresses how megatrends are transforming travel retail by exploring scenarios and based on these develop actionable insights. It is designed as a future-friendly dialogue tool that leverages critical thinking, real-world cases and consumer-centric perspectives.”
The whitepaper explores six key megatrends transforming the travel retail landscape:
- Gen Z
- Artificial Intelligence
- Experiential
- Social Commerce
- Conscious Consumerism
- Geopolitics
The findings are based on published data, interviewing industry experts and Blueprint’s experience advising more than 70 travel retail companies across Europe, the Middle East, Asia and North America since 2016.
Inconvenient Predictions factors in how global passenger traffic is projected to reach nearly 25 billion by 2052, roughly 2.5 times 2024 levels. Emerging markets will drive the majority of this long-term growth, shifting the balance of the world’s busiest air travel corridors towards Asia Pacific.
Supporting this growth will require US$2.4 trillion in airport infrastructure investment by 2040 to meet passenger demand, maintain existing facilities and achieve sustainability goals, noted Blueprint.
Blueprint said the six megatrends are transforming airport experiences and as a result new commercial opportunities are emerging while others are phased out.
According to the consultancy, one of the most impactful megatrends is AI-powered shopping technologies; more than 80% of adult consumers want to use AI to search for information about products and more than 50% use AI tools to compare prices and evaluate purchase options.
“AI-powered technologies provide hyper-personalised experiences and deliver price transparency, smart phone shopping continue to challenge traditional retail, and 97% of Gen Z customers cite social media as their top source of shopping inspiration – are we as an industry ready for this? Because the very definition of ‘relevance’ is changing,” said Kaneko-Henningsen.
Tomorrow’s opportunities
Blueprint highlighted the rise of ‘Sense of Belonging’ as a new commercial opportunity. Research highlighted by Forbes shows 25% of travellers now begin travel searches based on a ‘vibe’ or emotional feeling, and 89% say live experiences influence travel decisions as travellers increasingly seek authenticity, connection and emotional resonance.
“Heartfelt hospitality will become a competitive advantage going forward, a critical point of differentiation; these are emotional moments which AI can’t replicate,” said Kaneko-Henningsen.
Also, a Deloitte survey found that 64% of Gen Zs and 63% of Millennials are willing to pay more for environmentally sustainable products or services and will side with retailers that align with their own principles.
“Consumers are turning into change-makers,” Kaneko-Henningsen notes. “Now add geopolitics and geoeconomics to the equation and the shopping landscape changes dramatically; we as consumers are increasingly voting with our wallets.”
Inconvenient Predictions is now available as research report, presentation, masterclass, webinar and conference keynote and can be accessed by contacting the Blueprint team. ✈
