CHINA. ForwardKeys and Dragon Trail International jointly presented the most up-to-date China flight bookings and traveller sentiment data in a seminar held just before China’s Golden Week (1 to 7 October).
They noted that Chinese outbound travel, while still well off pre-pandemic levels, has narrowed the gap steadily through 2024.
Presenting were Dragon Trail International Director of Marketing and Communications Sienna Parulis-Cook, ForwardKeys China Market Expert Nancy Dai and Dragon Trail International Market Research Analyst Janice Meng.
Dai said outbound tourism from China has still not reached pre-pandemic levels. However, the gap to 2019 has narrowed from -41% in Q4 2023 to -24% in Q2 2024.
International departures from China in Q1 2024; % difference vs 2019
=2019 volumes
Focusing on Golden Week, outbound bookings were a sharp +32% higher than in 2023, indicating a strong resurgence in travel during the holiday period.
Leading outbound destinations
According to ForwardKeys, Asia continues to capture a significant share of Chinese travellers despite an -11% decrease overall on 2019 levels.
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia stands out with an impressive +142% increase in visitors compared to 2019 while Hong Kong and Macau also enjoyed double-digit growth from the Mainland. Singapore, Tokyo, Osaka and Seoul were also popular destinations during Golden Week.
ForwardKeys’ data suggests long-haul destinations are on track to recover to -26% below 2019 levels in 2024. Istanbul, London, Moscow and Milan are forecast to achieve double-digit growth, and Melbourne and Sydney are gaining traction with Chinese travellers thanks to improved flight connectivity and relaxed visa requirements.
Domestic travel was also expected to remain strong with flight bookings -17% below 2019 levels during the holiday period.
Decline in group tourists, rise of solo and couple travellers
Data suggests group travel is not as popular during Golden Week as it used to be, for both for long-haul and short-haul trips. There has been a -53% reduction in group travellers for long-haul journeys and a -43% decrease for short-haul trips compared to 2019.
Easier visa rules and better flight options attract more travellers
ForwardKeys demonstrated the impact of relaxed visa policies on Chinese travellers, showing the immediate boost in travel interest for Malaysia, Singapore and Australia as early as one week after the policy was announced and reaching even more impressive levels by the third month.
ForwardKeys offered data on direct flight connections from China to Europe in the second half of 2024, highlighting Milan as the leading city with the largest increase in direct seat capacity compared to 2019 at +77%, followed by Madrid (+61%).
The second half of the joint webinar focused on Dragon Trail’s 11th Chinese Traveller Sentiment Report.
Presenting the findings Dragon Trail Research Analyst Janice Meng began by revealing the latest outbound travel experience and plans for 2024.
Two-thirds of survey respondents have either travelled or plan to travel this calendar year, Meng explained 16% have already taken at least one trip compared to only 5% in March 2024 and 4% in August 2023.
Of the 160 respondents who had already travelled overseas in 2024, the majority stated their most recent trip was between March and July.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, October is peak season for outbound travel with the seven-day Golden Week.
Meng revealed around two-thirds of Chinese travellers start to plan their outbound trips two months or less before travelling, with 34% waiting until the last month before departure. Just 5.4% planned their trips more than six months in advance.
Greater China destinations of Macau and Hong Kong, along with South Korea, were the most visited followed by other Asian destinations including Japan and Thailand. These five destinations are also at the top of the wish list for future travel plans in 2024.
Outside Asia, Germany, France, USA and New Zealand were the most popular long-haul destinations that travellers had already visited.
Click the cover image to download a free copy of the Dragon Trail International report.
