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“The message of this forecast is that there is great potential if all aviation stakeholders – including governments – play their role“ |
Tony Tyler Director General & CEO IATA |
INTERNATIONAL. Global passenger traffic is expected to more than double by 2034 according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The body’s first 20-year forecast, produced in partnership with Tourism Economics, predicts +4.1% average annual growth over the next 20 years to 7.3 billion passengers, from the 3.3 billion expected this year.
China will overtake the USA as the biggest passenger market, with 1.3 billion passengers flying to, from or within the country by 2034 – representing average annual growth of +5.5%. The USA will grow by an average of +3.2% a year to 1.2 billion passengers.
China and the USA will also be the fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers by 2034, adding 856 million and 559 million passengers respectively in that year. India (266 million), Indonesia (183 million) and Brazil (170 million) will generate the next biggest passenger gains.
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In percentage terms, eight of the ten fastest-growing markets will be in Africa, with the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Tanzania, Burundi and Kuwait the five fastest-growing markets.
Of 4,000 country pairs studied, Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing, with average annual growth of +14.9%. Intra-Pakistan, Kuwait-Thailand, UAE-Ethiopia, Colombia-Ecuador and intra-Honduras travel will all grow by at least +9.5% on average.
IATA Director General and CEO Tony Tyler said: “Air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people. At present, aviation helps sustain 58 million jobs and $2.4 trillion in economic activity. In 20 years’ time we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105 million jobs and $6 trillion in GDP.
“Meeting the potential demand will require government policies that support the economic benefits that growing connectivity makes possible. Airlines can only fly where there is infrastructure to accommodate them. People can only fly as long as ticket taxes don’t price them out of their seats. And air connectivity can only thrive when nations open their skies and their markets.
“It’s a virtuous circle. Growing connectivity stimulates economies. And healthy economies demand greater connectivity. The message of this forecast is that there is great potential if all aviation stakeholders – including governments – play their role.”
Top ten passenger markets
The USA will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to number two, behind China. Cumulatively over the next 20 years the USA will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion.
India will overtake the UK as the third-biggest passenger market in 2031. India will serve a total of 367 million annual passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. Japan’s passenger numbers will grow by just +1.3% per year and decline from the fourth-largest market in 2014 to the ninth largest by 2033.
Germany and Spain will decline from fifth and sixth position in 2014 to be the eighth and seventh-biggest markets respectively. France will fall from seventh to tenth while Italy will fall out of the top ten altogether in around 2019.
Brazil will increase passenger numbers by 170 million and rise from tenth to fifth place. Its total market will be 272 million passengers by 2034. Indonesia will enter the top ten around 2020 and attain sixth place by 2029. By 2034 it will be a market of 270 million passengers.
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IATA’s 20 Year Passenger Forecast was launched at its World Passenger Symposium in San Diego last week |
Regional highlights
Routes to, from and within Asia Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, with an overall market size of 2.9 billion – representing 42% of global passenger traffic. Its annual average growth rate of +4.9% will be the joint highest, with the Middle East.
North America will grow by +3.3% annually and in 2034 will carry a total of 1.4 billion passengers, an additional 649 million passengers a year.
Europe will have the slowest growth rate, at +2.7%, but will cater for an additional 591 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.4 billion passengers by 2034.
Latin America will grow by +4.7%, serving a total of 605 million passengers, an additional 363 million passengers annually compared to this year.
The Middle East will grow strongly (+4.9% a year on average) and will see an extra 237 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2034. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of +5.6%, +4.8%, and +4.6% respectively. The total market size will be 383 million passengers.
Africa will grow by +4.7% a year. By 2034 it will see an extra 177 million passengers a year for a total market of 294 million passengers.
IATA’s 20 Year Passenger Forecast is available with a discount of -35% before 31 October. The full package – including global report, online access and all country reports – will cost US$15,000 instead of US$24,000, To place your order contact bis@iata.org
