The Omicron effect: ACI Europe estimates -20% fall in regional traffic since new variant revealed

EUROPE. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has released preliminary data on the impact of the COVID-19 Omicron variant on European passenger traffic.

In the three-week period following the first report from South Africa to the WHO of the Omicron variant (24 November 2021), passenger traffic at Europe’s airports is estimated to have fallen by -20% (from week 46 to 49). Over the same period, load factors on flights to and from European airports are estimated to have decreased from 66% (week 46) to 54% (week 49).

However, the past week (week 50), which corresponds with the start of the end-of-the-year festive season, saw passenger traffic increasing by +9% over the preceding week, with load factors regaining two points at 56%.

ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec said: “It is no surprise that the flight bans to Southern Africa and the patchy travel restrictions imposed by many governments on other markets – including within Europe – have directly impacted traffic levels in the past weeks. Business travel has been the first to recede, now followed by leisure travel given the extreme uncertainty and prospects of more restrictions both on travel and local life. Last week’s data shows that only ‘Visiting Family and Relatives’ travel is somehow holding up for now, as Europeans are craving getting together and reuniting with loved ones for Christmas.”

ACI Europe warned that the reversal of the recovery in passenger traffic for the remainder of the year means 2021 will end up below its forecast of -60% in passenger traffic for the European airport network, compared to pre-pandemic (2019) volumes.

Jankovec added: “Beyond the holiday season, there is no doubt that Omicron will take its toll on passenger traffic in the first quarter of 2022. But the extent to which we need to revise our expectations will primarily depend on whether governments continue with knee-jerk reactions or not. Omicron is fast becoming the dominant variant across Europe, which according to the ECDC makes travel restrictions ineffective from a public health perspective and highly damaging both economically and socially.”

Heathrow regains top five ranking in November

ACI Europe also reported passenger traffic figures for November, with airports in the region serving -35.2% fewer travellers than in the same month in 2019. This was a marginal improvement compared to the previous month (-36.7% in October).

Heathrow Airport regained its status in the top five European airports by passenger traffic in November, buoyed by the return of transatlantic flights

While airports in the EU+ area continued to improve over previous months, they did so at a slow pace despite the reopening of the transatlantic market (-38.1% in November compared to –41.2% in October). This mainly reflects the impact of Omicron on their performance towards the end of the month. Meanwhile, airports in the rest of Europe saw their performance worsening in November (-19%), compared to October (-17.4%).

The easing of restrictions for travel to North America during the month of November benefited the five largest airports, which combined saw traffic fall by -41.6% (versus 2019), against -45.6% in October.

While Istanbul (-30.4%) remained the busiest European airport, London Heathrow (-50.8%) rejoined the top five for the first time since May 2020.

Paris CDG (-40.8%) was ranked second, followed by Madrid (-35%) and Amsterdam Schiphol (-41.8%). Frankfurt was ranked sixth.

Smaller regional airports (with less than 5 million passengers a year) saw passenger traffic worsening in November (-25.3%) compared to the previous month (-22.8%).

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